مسیر بهینه استخراج از مخازن نفتی با وجود بکارگیری چارچوب قراردادی بیع متقابل (مطالعه موردی یکی از میادین نفتی در حال بهره برداری ایران در خلیج فارس)

نویسندگان
علی امامی میبدی 1
وحید قربانی پاشاکلایی 2
محسن ابراهیمی 3
علی سوری 4
سید محمد علی حاجی میرزایی 5
1 دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
2 پژوشگاه نیرو
3 دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی
4 دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران
5 موسسه مطالعات بین المللی انرژی و دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.41
چکیده


تعیین مسیر بهینه استخراج سالانه از یک مخزن نفت و گاز در یکی از میادین نفتی در حال بهره برداری ایران در خلیج فارس در شرایطی که توسعه این مخزن در چارچوب قراردادی بیع متقابل انجام شده، موضوع این مقاله است.انجام این پژوهش از روش مدل سازی سیستم بهینه سازی پویا و حل آن به روش عددی بلمن و به کمک نرم افزار Matlab انجام شده و بر اساس آن مسیر بهینه تولید پیشنهادی مدل با فرض گزینه های متفاوت روند قیمتهای انتظاری و نرخ تنزیل، محاسبه شده و با مسیر تولید مشخص شده در قرارداد و عملکرد واقعی میدان مقایسه شده است. نتایج این بررسی نشان می دهد که مسیر بهینه تولید محاسبه شده در مدل با فرض دو نرخ تنزیل حدی بالا(20 درصد) و پایین(1 درصد) با رفتار واقعی بهره بردار متفاوت است. تطابق پروفایل تولیدی پیشنهادی پیمانکار با مسیر بهینه تولید محاسبه شده درمدل در گزینه نرخ تنزیل بالا در سال های ابتدایی دوره، تایید کننده رفتار قابل انتظار از شرکت های بین المللی نفتی است اما عدم تطابق آن با عملکرد واقعی میدان، گویای نا همخوانی بین برنامه تولیدی مورد نظر پیمانکار با امکانات واقعی میدان است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
مسیر بهینه بهره برداری از مخازن نفت و گاز
قراردادهای خدماتی با ریسک
قراردادهای خدماتی بیع متقابل ایران

عنوان مقاله English

Optimal Extraction Path in a Oil and Gas Broun Field Under the Buyback Contractual Framework (Case Study on the Iranian Oil Field in the Persian Gulf)

چکیده English

The subject of this article is determining the oil optimal production path in one of the Iranian oil and gas brown field in Persian gulf, while the development of the field performed under the buyback contractual framework. In this research we have optimized a dynamic equation using numerically Bellman equation in Matlab program .We have considered different and possible oil price projections and discount rate scenarios. We have compared the differences between optimal production path and actual (and contractual) profiles. The results show that optimal production path is different from operator actual profile in both high and low discount rate (respectively 20% and 1%). Although contractual production profile and optimal production path for alternative discount rate is harmonization, However, Production profile bids by contractor matching with the calculated optimum production model in option of a high discount rate, in the early period, is Verified the expected behavior of international oil companies. But its incompatibility with actual performance the field indicates a incompatibility between the production plan bids by the contractor with the field real possibilities.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Optimal Oil Production Path
Risk Service Contracts
Iranian Buyback Contract
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