تحلیل رفتار اعضای اوپک در اعلام ذخائر نفتی: مطالعه موردی ایران

نویسندگان
مرتضی بهروزی فر 1
علی امامی میبدی 2
عبدالرسول قاسمی 3
محمدباقر حشمت زاده 4
1 موسسه مطالعات بین المللی انرژی
2 دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
3 دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
4 دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
10.29252/jemr.7.27.231
چکیده


انتظارات، نقش مهمی را در نوسانات قیمت نفت‏خام برعهده دارد و به نظر می‎رسد که عامل عمده و اساسی در تغییرات رفتار عرضه و نهایتا تغییرات‏ رفتار ‏واقعی‏ قیمت ‏نفت ‏بوده‏است. با شناخت عوامل موثر بر این انتظارات، می‎توان نبض بازار نفت و امکانات مختلف آن ‏را، به‏صورتی پایدار ‏و ‏مستمر‏ در‏دست ‏داشت. یکی از مهم‏ترین عواملی که می‏تواند بر سطح انتظاری‏ قیمت‏ها در آینده تاثیر بگذارد، حجم ذخائر نفتی موجود و به‏ویژه حجم نفت در اختیار کشورهای عضو اوپک و محدود بودن حجم ذخائر قابل بازیافت نفت می‏باشد. اهمیت حجم ذخائر نفتی برای هریک از کشورهای عضو اوپک علاوه بر اعتبار در اختیار داشتن حجم بالاتری از ذخائر نفت نسبت به دیگران، کسب سهم بالاتری از کل تولید اوپک است، به این ترتیب که پس از تدوین سیستم سهمیه‏بندی تولید کشورهای عضو اوپک در ابتدای دهه 1980، حجم ذخائر به عنوان یکی از معیارهای تعیین سهمیه مشخص شد و پس از آن بود که مسابقه اعلان افزایش حجم ذخائر میان اعضا شروع شد. مقاله حاضر تلاش کرده تا با بررسی تحولات حجم ذخائر نفتی ایران از طریق بررسی میزان تاثیرگذاری این اطلاعات بر تولید نفت کشور، نسبت به معتبر بودن این اعلام‏ها، اظهارنظر کند، زیرا این اعتقاد وجود دارد که اعلام بیش از اندازه حجم ذخائر، باعث اغتشاش در بازار خواهد بود به این دلیل که این اطلاعات، مبنائی برای تداوم پیش‏بینی عرضه آتی نفت در بازارهای جهان است.‬‬ برمبنای نتایج مقاله حاضر که بر مبنای داده‏های فصلی دوره 1980 تا 2013 و در چارچوب مدل مارکف سوئیچینگ انجام شده، عملا ارتباطی میان افزایش حجم ذخائر و تغییر تولید نفت‏خام ایران به‏عنوان یکی از اعضای اوپک وجود ندارد که به نظر می‏رسد اعلام بیش از اندازه واقعی حجم ذخائر نفت، عملا ناشی از رقابت پنهان میان اعضا در کسب جایگاه بالاتر در سازمان و نیز بدست آوردن سهمیه بیشتر تولید از این سازمان است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
اوپک
حجم ذخائر نفتی
قیمت نفت
سیاست تولید

عنوان مقاله English

OPEC Members' Behavior Analysis on Oil Reserves Announcements: Case Study of Iran

نویسندگان English

Morteza Behrouzifar 1
Ali Emami Meibodi 2
Abdolrassoul Ghassemi 3
Mohammad Bagher Heshmatzadeh 4
1 Institute for International Energy Economics Studies
2 Economocs Faculty Allameh Tabatabaei University
3 Economocs Faculty Allameh Tabatabaei University
4 Economics Facuity - Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده English

Expectation has an important role in oil price fluctuation and it seems which one of the important factors is for changing supply behaviour however oil price changes. Identification of mentioned expectation could help us for partly and continuously control the oil market situation.one of the important factor that could have effects on future oil price expectation is volume of current reserve oil and specifically OPEC members reserves. For OPEC members not only high reserve oil is prestige but also give them chance for having more OPEC production share however after applying market sharing system based on production for OPEC members in early 1980s,volume of reserve oil considered as a main benchmark and after that started increase reserve oil competition among OPEC members. In this paper tried study transition s of Iran’s oil reserves and its effectiveness on the oil producer’s countries’ information and also its accuracy. According to some statement reserve oil extra announcement could create chaos in oil market. Based on this study there is no any relation between increasing of oil reserves and oil production changes in Iran as one of the OPEC member's country and it seems extra reserve oil announcement more than reality is a hidden competition among members for getting more credit.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

OPEC
Reserve Oil Volume
Oil Price
Production Policy
♣ Abdoli G, Majed V. (2012), Analyzing OPEC Members Behavior: A Cooperation Game Approach, Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 2012; 2 (7) :27-50
♣ Abdoli G, Majed V. (2012), Analyzing OPEC Members Behavior: A Cooperation Game Approach, Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 2012; 2 (7) :27-50
 Adelman، M.A. and Lynch M.C. (1997)، Fixed view of resource limit creates undue pessimism, Oil & Gas Journal, v. 95, no. 14, p. 56-60.
 Adelman، M.A. and Lynch M.C. (1997)، Fixed view of resource limit creates undue pessimism, Oil & Gas Journal, v. 95, no. 14, p. 56-60.
 Baghery Ali (2011), OPEC's Role in the Diversified Future Energy Market, Iranian journal of Economic Research, Vol. 16, No. 46, Spring 2011, pp. 1-18
 Baghery Ali (2011), OPEC's Role in the Diversified Future Energy Market, Iranian journal of Economic Research, Vol. 16, No. 46, Spring 2011, pp. 1-18
 Bentley, R.W., Mannan S.A., and Wheeler S.J. (2007), Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves), Energy Policy, 35, no 12:6364–82.
 Bentley, R.W., Mannan S.A., and Wheeler S.J. (2007), Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves), Energy Policy, 35, no 12:6364–82.
 Boyce John R. (2009), what goes up Must Come Down? An Economic Analysis of Peak Oil, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
 Boyce John R. (2009), what goes up Must Come Down? An Economic Analysis of Peak Oil, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
 BP, BP statistical yearbook, 2015.
 BP, BP statistical yearbook, 2015.
♣ Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère (1998), The End of Cheap Oil, Scientific American, march 1998, pp 78-83. [DOI:10.1038/scientificamerican0398-78]
♣ Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère (1998), The End of Cheap Oil, Scientific American, march 1998, pp 78-83. [DOI:10.1038/scientificamerican0398-78]
 David L. Greene, Janet L. Hopson, Jia Li (2005), Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective, University of Tennessee, 27 December 2005.
 David L. Greene, Janet L. Hopson, Jia Li (2005), Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective, University of Tennessee, 27 December 2005.
 Hamilton, J. D. (1994) , Time Series Analysis, Princeton University.
 Hamilton, J. D. (1994) , Time Series Analysis, Princeton University.
 Krolzig, H.-M. (1997), Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions Modelling Statistical Inference and Application to Business Cycle Analysis, Berlin: Springer.
 Krolzig, H.-M. (1997), Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions Modelling Statistical Inference and Application to Business Cycle Analysis, Berlin: Springer.
♣ Linden, Henry R. (1998), Flaws seen in resource models behind crisis forecasts for oil supply price, Oil and Gas Journal, v. 96, n. 52 (December 28, 1998), p. 33-37.
♣ Linden, Henry R. (1998), Flaws seen in resource models behind crisis forecasts for oil supply price, Oil and Gas Journal, v. 96, n. 52 (December 28, 1998), p. 33-37.
 Lynch, M. C. (2003), Petroleum resources pessimism debunked in Hubbert model and Hubbert modelers' assessment, Oil Gas J., 101(27), 38–47.
 Lynch, M. C. (2003), Petroleum resources pessimism debunked in Hubbert model and Hubbert modelers' assessment, Oil Gas J., 101(27), 38–47.
♣ Mohr and Evans (2008), Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via Theoretical Modeling, Natural Resources Research, 17(1):1-11, March 2008. [DOI:10.1007/s11053-008-9059-8]
♣ Mohr and Evans (2008), Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via Theoretical Modeling, Natural Resources Research, 17(1):1-11, March 2008. [DOI:10.1007/s11053-008-9059-8]
♣ Okullo Samuel J., Reynes Frederic (2011), Can Reserve Additions in Mature Crude Oil Provinces Attenuate Peak Oil?, Energy Journal, Volume 36, Issue 9, September 2011, Pages 5755–5764. [DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.051]
♣ Okullo Samuel J., Reynes Frederic (2011), Can Reserve Additions in Mature Crude Oil Provinces Attenuate Peak Oil?, Energy Journal, Volume 36, Issue 9, September 2011, Pages 5755–5764. [DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.051]
♣ R.J. Brecha (20012), Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil, Energy Policy, December 2012, 51:586–597 · [DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.016]
♣ R.J. Brecha (20012), Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil, Energy Policy, December 2012, 51:586–597 · [DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.016]
 R.W. Bentley (2002), Global oil & gas depletion, Energy Policy, 30,189-205.
 R.W. Bentley (2002), Global oil & gas depletion, Energy Policy, 30,189-205.
 Salameh Mamdouh G. (2004), How realistic are OPEC's proven oil reserves?, Petroleum Review, August 2004, P. 26-29
 Salameh Mamdouh G. (2004), How realistic are OPEC's proven oil reserves?, Petroleum Review, August 2004, P. 26-29
 Samuel J.Okullo, Frederic Reynes (2015), Modeling Peak oil and geological Constraints on oil production, Resource and ENERGY Economics.
 Samuel J.Okullo, Frederic Reynes (2015), Modeling Peak oil and geological Constraints on oil production, Resource and ENERGY Economics.
 Sauré P. (2010), Over-reporting Oil Reserves, Swiss National Bank working paper.
 Sauré P. (2010), Over-reporting Oil Reserves, Swiss National Bank working paper.
 The Economics of Peak oil, university of North Carolina, July 2011.
 The Economics of Peak oil, university of North Carolina, July 2011.