تخمین تابع تقاضای سفرهای مذهبی با روش سیستم تقاضای تقریبا ایده‌آل خطی پویا

نویسندگان
علی اصغر سالم 1
مرتضی نیازی 2
1 دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
2 دانشگاه تهران
10.29252/jemr.7.28.161
چکیده
گردشگری مذهبی چه در داخل کشور و چه در سطح بین‌الملل از اهمیت فراوانی برخوردار است. در این مطالعه با استفاده از روش سیستم تقاضای تقریباً ایده‌آل خطی پویا و فرمول‌های کشش قیمتی و درآمدی به برآورد و بررسی تقاضای سفرهای مذهبی پرداخته شده است. بدین ‌منظور از داده‌های خرد بودجه خانوار در سال‌های 1370 تا 1390 ارائه شده توسط مرکز آمار ایران استفاده گردیده است. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، کشش درآمدی سفرهای مذهبی در حدود 42/0 است، بدین معنا که هر یک درصد افزایش درآمد منجر به افزایش ۴/0 درصدی تقاضا برای سفرهای مذهبی می‌گردد. همچنین کشش قیمتی تقاضا در تمامی گروه‌های کالایی منفی بوده و کشش قیمتی سفرهای مذهبی در حدود 98/0- است
کلیدواژه‌ها
گردشگری مذهبی
سیستم تقاضای تقریباً ایده‌آل خطی پویا
کشش‌ قیمتی
کشش درآمدی

عنوان مقاله English

Estimation of Demand Function of Religious Trips Using Method of Dynamic Linear Almost Ideal Demand Cystem

نویسندگان English

ali asghar salem 1
morteza niazi 2
1 Allameh Tabatabai University
2 University of Tehran
چکیده English

Religious tourism is very important either in Iran and in the international level. In this study dynamic linear almost ideal demand system and formulas of price and income elasticity were applied to estimate demand for religious trips. To this end, micro data of household budget prepared by Census center of Iran for 1991-2011 has been applied in this study.

According to the results, income elasticity of religious trips is about 0/42 , that means one percent increase in income will lead to an increase of 0/4 percent in demand for religious trips. Also the price elasticity of demand in all commodity groups is negative and price elasticity of religious trips is about -0/98.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

religious tourism
Dynamic Linear Almost Ideal Demand System
Price Elasticity
Income Elasticity
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تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی
دوره 8، شماره 28 - شماره پیاپی 28
تابستان 1396
صفحه 161-190