تحلیل رفتار اوپک با رویکرد نظریه بازی تکاملی

نویسندگان
مرضیه خاکستری
سحر جلینی
احمد عاملی
دانشگاه خوارزمی
10.29252/jemr.8.31.103
چکیده
این مقاله روشی را برای بررسی مشکلات اقتصادی که در آن عوامل منطق‌گرا در بازارهای پویا تعامل دارند ارایه می دهد. که در آن از نظریه بازی تکاملی و مدل‌سازی عامل بنیان برای پرداختن به مشکلات بین دوره‌ای که نمایش دهنده ویژگی‌های تکاملی هستند، استفاده می شود. در این تحقیق به بررسی رفتارعوامل سازمان کشورهای صادر کننده نفت (اوپک) در بازارهای جهانی نفت در طول دهه ۱۹۶۰ و ۱۹۷۰، پرداخته می شودکه درصدد کنترل بازارهای جهانی نفت در طی این دوره بودند. برای پرداختن به این مورد، یک مدل نظریه بازی تکاملی متقارن برای بررسی رفتار عوامل اوپک استفاده شده است و این مدل نشان می‌دهد که آنها آموختند تا کنترل منابع خود را به دست بگیرند. در ادامه به منظور توانایی محاسباتی پیاده‌سازی بازی تکاملی و ارائه نتایج دقیق یک روش مدلسازی عامل بنیان به کار گرفته خواهد شد. همچنین نشان داده می‌شود که رفتار اوپک در طول این دوره به رشد ذخایر نفتی در کشورهای عضو آن وابسته است. تحقق بیشتر ذخایر منابع طبیعی، به اوپک اجازه داده است تا به صورت یک شرکت بزرگ عمل نماید و در صدد کنترل بازارهای جهانی نفت در دوره مذکور باشد. لازم به ذکر است در صورت ثابت ماندن ذخایر، اوپک قابلیت تسلط بر بازارهای جهانی نفت را پیدا نمی‌کرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
نظریه بازی تکاملی
مدلسازی عامل بنیان
اوپک

عنوان مقاله English

An Analysis of the Behavior of OPEC With the Approach of Evolutionary Game Theory

نویسندگان English

Marzieh Khakestari
Sahar Joleini
Ahmad Ameli
Kharazmi University
چکیده English

This paper implements an approach to examine economic problems in which rational agents interact in dynamic markets. We use evolutionary game theory and agent-based modeling in tandem as a means to address intertemporal problems that display evolutionary attributes. This study examines the behavior of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the global oil markets during the 1960s and 1970s, which sought to control global oil markets during this period.. To address this, a symmetric evolutionary game theory model is used to examine the behavior of OPEC agents as they learned to take control of their resources. An agent-based modeling approach employs computational power to implement the evolutionary game and provide detailed results. It is shown that OPEC’s behavior over the period is dependent on the growth of petroleum reserves within the member nations. Increasing realizations of natural resource reserves spur increased rates of learning and experimentation, and this enables the cartel to act cooperatively and capture control of global petroleum markets. If reserves are kept constant, OPEC lingers at a state in which the cartel does not come to dominate world oil markets.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Evolutionary Game Theory
Agent-Based Modeling
OPEC
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