طراحی یک مدل کلان‌سنجی پویا با لحاظ پویایی‌های صندوق توسعه ملی برای اقتصاد ایران

نویسندگان
جاوید بهرامی
داود دانش جعفری
محمد صیادی
پگاه پاشا
تهران- نرسیده به سه راه طالقانی- دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی
10.29252/jemr.9.33.43
چکیده
مدیریت درآمدهای نفتی به نحوی که زمینه پیشرفت و توسعه کشور را فراهم آورد، همواره یکی از چالش‌های کلیدی اقتصاد کشورهای در حال توسعه صاحب منابع نفتی بوده است. در همین راستا، ‌هدف اصلی این تحقیق، ارائه یک الگوی کلان‌سنجی پویای متناسب با وضعیت اقتصاد ایران با لحاظ تکانه‌های مجزا و شبیه‌سازی‌های مربوطه است که در آن به ارزیابی پویایی‌های صندوق توسعه ملی و تأثیر آن بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان پرداخته شده است. نتایج تحقیق با توجه به پیش‌بینی‌های مبتنی بر شبیه‌سازی برون‌نمونه و نیز سناریو‌های طراحی شده (سناریو وجود و عدم وجود صندوق، تغییر در سهم صندوق از درآمدهای نفتی، سهم شناور صندوق از درآمدهای نفتی و سناریو مواجهه صندوق با شوک‌های موقت و دائمی نفت) بیانگر آن است که ایجاد صندوق در کوتاه‌مدت، به بهبود وضعیت متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی کمک نمی‌کند و آثار مثبت چنین سیاستی در بلندمدت ظاهر می‌شود. علت این مسئله زمان‌بر بودن اثرپذیری سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی از تسهیلات اعطایی صندوق توسعه ملی و و به تبع آن افزایش تولید بخش غیرنفتی در اقتصاد است. با این وجود در کوتاه‌مدت این امکان وجود دارد که با طراحی سیاست‌های ارزی یا بودجه‌ای بتوان از افت اولیه سطح فعالیت‌های اقتصاد بر اثر وضع صندوق کاسته و بر بهبود عملکرد صندوق افزود. علاوه بر این، چنانچه در سازوکار صندوق، سهم صندوق از درآمدهای نفتی شناور (اتخاذ سیاست ضدسیکلی در تخصیص درآمدهای نفتی به صندوق) باشد، به کاهش پیامدهای منفی شوک‌ها در کوتاه‌مدت کمک خواهد کرد، چرا که کمترین فشار اولیه تورمی، نوسانات در نرخ ارز و خالص بدهی بخش دولتی تحت این سناریو رخ می‌دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
مدل کلان سنجی
شبیه‌سازی تکانه‌ها
صندوق توسعه ملی

عنوان مقاله English

Designing a Dynamic Macro Econometric Model for the Iranian economy with Emphasizing on dynamics of the National Development Fund

نویسندگان English

Javid Bahrami
Davoud Daneshjafari
Mohamad Sayadi
Pegah Pasha
Kharazmi University
چکیده English

Oil Revenue Management (ORM) has always been one of the key challenges facing the oil rich developing countries. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to provide a dynamic macroeconometric model adapted to the state of the Iranian economy. Also, the assessment of the dynamics of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its impact on macroeconomic variables are discussed. The results of the study, based on the out of sample and the four scenarios (the existence and absence of the NDF, the change in the share of the fund from oil revenues, the Fund's floating share of oil revenues, and the scenario of the fund exposure with temporary and permanent oil shocks) indicate that, The creation of a NDF in the short term will not improve the situation of macroeconomic variables, and the positive effects of such a policy will appear in the long run. The reason for this the private sector investment was time consuming and, consequently, the increase in non-oil sector production in the economy. Nevertheless, it is possible in the short term that by designing foreign exchange or budgetary policies, the initial downturn in the level of economic activity may be reduced by the stablization of the fund. Moreover, as in the mechanism of the fund, the floating share of oil revenues (adopting an anticyclical policy in allocating oil revenues to the fund) will help to reduce the negative consequences of shocks in the short run, because the lowest initial inflationary pressures, fluctuations in exchange rates and the net debt of the public sector occurs under this scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Macroeconometric Model
Simulation
National Development Fund
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