بررسی اثرات شوک مسکن بر روی پویایی‌های درآمدی در ایران: کاربردی از داده‌های شبه‌پانل

نویسندگان
سید عزیز آرمن 1
بتول آذری بنی 2
1 دانشگاه شهید چمران
2 دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز
10.29252/jemr.9.34.7
چکیده
نوسانات قیمت مسکن در سال‌های اخیر در ایران همواره یکی از موضوعات مهم اقتصادی بوده است که تغییرات آن بر روی رفاه اقتصادی خانوارها طی دوران زندگی اثر می‌گذارد. در این مطالعه اثرات شوک مسکن بر روی پویایی‌های درآمدی نسل‌های سنی مختلف مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرد. جهت بررسی این پدیده نوعی الگوی داده‌سازی نسلی طراحی‌شده است. در الگوی طراحی شده، با ترکیب داده‌های مقطعی بودجه خانوار نسل‌هایی از خانوارها طی سال‌های 1386 تا 1394 مورد ردیابی قرار می‌گیرند. در این پژوهش سعی شده، تا جهت روشن شدن مطالب مورد بررسی نتایج در چهار مرحله بدون شوک و شوک 5، 10 و 15 درصد گزارش شود. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد وقوع شوک کوچک در سال 1386 باعث شده است تا درآمد متوسط خانوارها در آن سال و سال‌های بعدی نسبت به حالت قبل از رخ دادن شوک کاهش یابد. در حالیکه وقوع یک شوک بزرگ (15٪) باعث کاهش درآمد متوسط خانوارها به میزان زیادی شده است. این حالت می‌تواند به این معنا باشد که در صورت وقوع شوک بزرگ خانوارهای آسیب پذیر به سختی قادر به ترمیم درآمد کاهش یافته هستند در حالیکه در یک شوک کوچک امکان ترمیم بیشتر است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
شوک مسکن
پویایی درآمد
رویکرد شبه‌پانل

عنوان مقاله English

The Effects of the Housing Shock on Income Dynamics in Iran: an Application of Data Pseudo-Panel

نویسندگان English

Aziz Arman 1
Batool Azari Beni 2
1 Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2 Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
چکیده English

Fluctuations in housing prices in recent years in Iran has always been one of the most important economic issues on the economic welfare changes affect lifetime. In this paper, the effects of housing on the dynamics of income generations age is examined. This phenomenon type of model is designed to assess the generation of data building. The model is designed household budget generations by combining cross-sectional data from households in the years 2007 to 2015 are tracking. In this research, in order to clarify the contents of the review results in four steps without shock and shock 5, 10 and 15 percent reported. The results show that the average income of households without shock reduced from 86 years to 89 and then 89 years with little speed has increased, although the increase in revenue in less than 86 years is 90 years. As well as small shock in 2007 has led to middle income households in that year and the following years than before the occurrence of shocks is reduced. While the occurrence of a great shock (15%) reduces the average household income has been greatly. This could mean that in the event of a large shock of vulnerable households are barely able to restore income dropped while repairing a small shock is possible.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Housing Shock
Dynamic Pseudo Panel Data
Income Dynamic
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