بررسی اثر نامتقارن شوک‌های مثبت و منفی تورم بر نااطمینانی تورم در ایران از طریق بسط الگوی بال (1992)

نویسندگان
دانشگاه مازندران
چکیده
هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی اثرات نامتقارن شوک‌های مثبت و منفی تورم بر نااطمینانی تورم در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت است. بدین منظور، ابتدا الگوی بال (1992) از طریق تجزیه شوک‌های تورمی به شوک‌های مثبت و منفی تقاضای پول و شوک‌های مثبت و منفی عرضه پول بسط داده شده است. سپس با استفاده از الگوی خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیع شده غیر خطی و استفاده از داده‌های سری زمانی اقتصاد ایران برای دوره 1357 تا 1396 اثر شوک‌های مثبت و منفی تورم در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بر نااطمینانی تورم که از الگوی خودرگرسیون واریانس شرطی تعمیم یافته نمایی استخراج شده‌ است، مورد بررسی و تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان دهنده این است که اثر شوک-های مثبت تورم بر نااطمینانی تورم در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت مثبت و معنادار است؛ در مقابل، شوک‌های منفی تورم اثری بر نااطمینانی تورم در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت نداشته است؛ به عبارت دیگر، افزایش تورم موجب افزایش نااطمینانی تورم در ایران شده است؛ در حالی که کاهش تورم چنین اثری بر نااطمینانی تورم نداشته است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The Survey of the Asymmetric Effects of Inflation's Positive and Negative Shocks on Inflation Uncertainty in Iran Through the Extending Ball Model (1992)

نویسندگان English

Ali Akbar Bajelan
Saeed Karimi Potanlar
Ahmad Jafari Samimi
University of Mazandaran
چکیده English

The purpose of current paper is to survey the asymmetric effects of inflation's positive and negative shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. For this end, first, the Ball model (1992) has been extended through the decomposition of inflation shocks to money demand's positive and negative shocks and money supply's positive and negative shocks. Then, through using nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model and time series data of Iranian economy from 1978 to 2017 the positive and negative effects of inflation on inflation uncertainty, which is from the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, has been analyzed. The results of the study show that the effects of the inflation's positive shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run are positive and significant. In contrast, the negative shocks have not any effects on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. In other words, the rise in inflation causes an increase in inflation uncertainty in Iran; whereas, decrease in inflation has not had effects on inflation uncertainty.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Inflation
Inflation Uncertainty
Ball Model
Nonlinear Autoregressive Distribution Lag Model
Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
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