تحلیل تجربی روند پولشویی در ایران (رهیافت روش معادلات ساختاری مبتنی بر حداقل مربعات جزیی)

نویسندگان
مجید مداح
مهلا سینائیان
دانشگاه سمنان
10.29252/jemr.10.40.99
چکیده
پولشویی از طریق تضعیف اعتبار نهادهای مالی، اعتماد سرمایه‌گذاران به بازارهای مالی را کاهش می‌دهد و بی‌ثباتی سیاسی و انحراف در تخصیص منابع را تشدید می‌کند. در پولشویی منابع غیرقانونی به طور مخفیانه و دور از نظارت‌های رسمی وارد اقتصاد قانونی می‌شود که بر این اساس ماهیت پنهان دارد. این مقاله تلاش دارد تا با بررسی ابعاد مختلف پولشویی، تغییرات آن را در اقتصاد ایران در چارچوب ادبیات متغیرهای پنهان با استفاده از روش مدل‌سازی ساختاری با رویکرد حداقل مربعات جزیی (PLS-SEM) طی سال‌های 1360 تا 1396 به لحاظ تجربی بررسی کند. نتایج حاصل از مقاله نشان می‌دهد جرایم سرقت و قاچاق مواد مخدر اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر روند پولشویی دارند. همچنین شرایط اقتصادی می‌تواند انگیزه افراد را در ورود به فعالیت‌های غیر قانونی تحریک کند. علاوه بر آن رشد پولشویی همراه با کاهش تولید ناخالص داخلی و افزایش حجم پول نقد در جریان است که در نتیجه آن ثبات اقتصادی تضعیف می‌شود. طبق نتایج این تحقیق پولشویی در ایران روند صعودی دارد که در صورت رشد جرایم به ویژه قاچاق مواد مخدر، این روند ادامه خواهد یافت که بر بخش حقیقی اقتصاد اثر منفی دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
پولشویی
جرم
مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری
ایران

عنوان مقاله English

The Empirical Analysis of Money Laundering Trend in Iran (by Using PLS-SEM Method )

نویسندگان English

Majid Maddah
Mahla Sinaeyan
Semnan University
چکیده English

Money Laundering (ML) reduces the confidence of investors to the financial market, worsen political instability and deviates resources allocation to unproductive sectors by weakening of financial institutions credit. In the ML, illegal resources are entered into the legal economy secretly and outside formal control whereby it has hidden nature. The aim of this paper is to study the different sizes ML and its changes in Iranian economy in the context of latent variables literature using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) over the period 1360 to 1396. According to the results from paper firstly, drug trafficking and theft crimes have a positive and significant effect on ML trend. Besides that, economic conditions influence an individual’s motivation to enter illegal activities. Secondly, ML growth is associated with decreasing economic growth and increasing the volume of cash that waste economic stability. Thirdly, ML has an upward trend which based on it can be anticipated that in spite of crimes growth, especially drug trafficking, the increasing trend of ML will continue.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Money Laundering
Crime
Structural equation modeling
Iran
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