تأثیر بدهی‌های خارجی دولت بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای درحال توسعه با درآمد سرانه متوسط به بالا (رهیافت هم‌انباشتگی در داده‌های تابلویی پویا)

نویسندگان
1 سازمان شهرداریهای و دهیاریهای کشور
2 دانشگاه آزاد تهران مرکز
3 دانشگاه آزا دتهران مرکز
چکیده
بررسی ارتباط بین بدهی‌های خارجی دولت و رشد اقتصادی یکی از مباحث مهم در ادبیات اقتصاد کلان بوده و بخش عمده‌ای از مطالعات تجربی را در سال‌های اخیر به خود اختصاص داده است. ازاین‌رو، هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر بلندمدت بدهی‌های خارجی دولت بر رشد اقتصادی 58 کشور در حال توسعه با درآمد سرانه متوسط به بالا طی سال 2018-1985 می‌باشد. برای این منظور از رهیافت همجمعی میانگین گروهی پسران و اسمیت در داده‌های تابلویی برای تخمین رابطه بلندمدت استفاده‌شده است. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل نشان می‌دهد رابطه تعادلی بلندمدت بین متغیرهای مدل برقرار بوده و متغیرهای شاخص سرمایه انسانی، درآمد دولت، تعادل مالی و درجه باز بودن اقتصاد تأثیر مثبت و متغیرهای نسبت بدهی‌های خارجی دولت به تولید ناخالص داخلی حقیقی و رشد جمعیت دارای اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای مورد بررسی می‌باشند. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی در کشورهای مورد بررسی با کاهش نسبت بدهی‌های خارجی به تولید، از طریق ایجاد انضباط مالی و افزایش درآمدهای دولت به افزایش تولید و رشد اقتصادی کمک نمایند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The Long-Run Relationship between External Government Debt and Economic Growth in Developing Countries with Upper Middle Income Level (Panel Co-integration Approach)

نویسندگان English

Jafar Zhilaei aghdam 1
Ali Reza Daghighiasli 2
Marjan Daman Kashide 3
Ali Asmailpor Magari 3
1 Country and Municipalities Organization
2 Islamic Azad University of Central Tehran Branch
3 Islamic Azad University of Central Tehran Branch
چکیده English

The relationship between external debt and economic growth is one of the important issues in macroeconomics literature and has been considered in empirical studies. So, in this paper the long-run relationship among external government debt and economic growth in 58 selected developing countries for 1985-2018 by applying a pool mean group method which is suggested by Pesaran & Smith. The main empirical results showed that there is a long-run relationship between external debt and economic growth. Also, increase in growth in selected countries in addition to the influence of produce factors, labor, capital stock and monetary policy, influence of public debt. Also, capital stock, open economic, financial balance and saving variables has positive effect and population growth and Government revenue has negative effect on economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

External Government Debt
Economic Growth
Selected Developing Countries
Dynamic Panel Data Approach
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