بررسی تغییر در ترجیحات مصرف‌کنندگان نان در مناطق شهری ایران با استفاده از رهیافت‌های WARP و SARP

نویسندگان
محمد رضوانی 1
یدالله بستان 2
میلاد اتقایی 1
احمد فتاحی اردکانی 3
1 دانشگاه تهران
2 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
3 دانشگاه اردکان
10.52547/jemr.11.42.187
چکیده
بررسی رفتار مصرف‌کننده و عقلایی عمل کردن آن در انتخاب کالاها و خدمات مختلف ازآن‌جهت حائز اهمیت است که به سنجش ترجیحات افراد در قبال کالاهای داخلی یا خارجی پرداخته و اثرگذاری تکانه‌ها و سیاست‌ها را به‌صورت شکست ساختاری یا تغییر در ترجیحات افراد نشان می‌دهد. به‌عبارتی صحت فرض رفتار عقلایی مصرف‌کننده بررسی می‌شود. در این میان آزمون ترجیحات آشکارشده، روشی قدرتمندی است که به بررسی تغییرات در ترجیحات خانواده‌ها می‌پردازد. ازاین‌رو هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی پایداری و شکست ساختاری ترجیحات مصرف‌کنندگان شهری برای سبد مصرفی نان در دوره زمانی 1395-1376 با استفاده از اصول قوی و ضعیف آزمون ناپارامتریک ترجیحات آشکارشده در ایران است. در ابتدا ماتریس ترجیحات ضعیف آشکارشده با استفاده از داده‌های میانگین قیمت و مقدار انواع نان حاصل از طرح هزینه و درآمد خانوار در نقاط شهری و با مقایسه انتخاب‌های مصرف‌کنندگان در دوره‌های زمانی مختلف تشکیل شد. نتایج بررسی ماتریس WARP بیانگر عدم وجود تناقض در ترجیجات مصرف‌کنندگان سبد نان می‌باشد. به دلیل عدم وجود نقض در WARP در ادامه به بررسی تغییر در ترجیحات با استفاده از SARP پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که رفتار عقلایی مصرف‌کنندگان انواع نان در خانواده‌های شهری ایران رد می‌شود. همچنین نتایج محاسبه‌ی آماره K-W دلالت بر وجود یک تغییر ساختاری در سال 1393 دارد و بیانگر عدم اثرگذاری شوک‌های زودگذر و وجود شکست ساختاری در ترجیحات مصرف‌کنندگان شهری برای نان است. با توجه به سال‌های شکست تابع مطلوبیت و تفکیک کل دوره و رفتار عقلایی مصرف‌کنندگان، پیشنهاد می‌شود در تخمین تابع تقاضا نان مصرفی خانوارها به این نکته توجه شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ایران
ترجیحات
نان
WARP
SARP

عنوان مقاله English

Investigation of Changes in Bread Consumers' Preferences in Urban Areas of Iran Using WARP and SARP Approaches

نویسندگان English

mohammad rezvani 1
yadollah Bostan 2
Milad Etghaei 1
Ahmad fatahi Ardakani 3
1 University of Tehran
2 Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
3 Ardakan University
چکیده English

Investigating consumer behavior and rationalizing it in selecting different goods and services is important because it measures individuals 'preferences over domestic or foreign goods and demonstrates the impact of impulses and policies as a structural failure or a change in individuals' preferences. In other words, the validity of the assumption of rational consumer behavior is examined. The test of revealed preferences is a powerful way of examining changes in family preferences. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the stability and structural failure of urban consumer preferences for bread basket in the period 1996-1999 using strong and weak nonparametric test of revealed preferences in Iran. Initially, the weak preferences matrix revealed using average price data and the amount of bread types derived from household expenditure and income plan in urban areas and comparing consumer choices over different time periods. The results of the WARP matrix analysis show that there are no inconsistencies in the bread basket consumers' preferences. Due to the absence of violations in WARP, further changes in preferences using SARP were investigated. The results showed that rational behavior of bread consumers in urban households of Iran is rejected. Also, the results of K-W statistics indicate that there is a structural change in 2014 and indicate that there is no effect of transient shocks and structural failure in urban consumer preferences for bread. Given the years of failure of the utility function and the rationalization of consumer behavior and rational behavior, it is suggested to consider this in estimating the bread demand function of households.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Bread
Iran
Preferences
SARP
WARP
Aguiar, V. H., & Serrano, R. (2020). Cardinal revealed preference: Disentangling transitivity and consistent binary choice. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 102462. [DOI:10.1016/j.jmateco.2020.102462]
Aguiar, V. H., & Serrano, R. (2020). Cardinal revealed preference: Disentangling transitivity and consistent binary choice. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 102462. [DOI:10.1016/j.jmateco.2020.102462]
Amirahmadi, B. (1995). Survey of bread consumption in urban and rural areas of Iran and the share of bread in the supply of vital energy and household costs. Proceedings of the Special Meeting, Institute of Nutrition Research and Food Industry of Iran. 166. (in Persian)
Amirahmadi, B. (1995). Survey of bread consumption in urban and rural areas of Iran and the share of bread in the supply of vital energy and household costs. Proceedings of the Special Meeting, Institute of Nutrition Research and Food Industry of Iran. 166. (in Persian)
Blundell, R. W., Browning, M., Crawford, I., De Rock, B., Vermeulen, F., & Cherchye, L. (2012). Sharp for SARP: Nonparametric bounds on the behavioural and welfare effects of price changes. Available at SSRN 2158658. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2158658]
Blundell, R. W., Browning, M., Crawford, I., De Rock, B., Vermeulen, F., & Cherchye, L. (2012). Sharp for SARP: Nonparametric bounds on the behavioural and welfare effects of price changes. Available at SSRN 2158658. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2158658]
Conover, W. J. (1999). Practical Nonparametric Statistics, (third ed.) Wiley, pp. 288.297.
Conover, W. J. (1999). Practical Nonparametric Statistics, (third ed.) Wiley, pp. 288.297.
Demuynck, T., Seel, C. (2018). Revealed preference with limited consideration. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 10(1), 102-31. http://doi:10.1257/mic.20150343 [DOI:10.1257/mic.20150343]
Demuynck, T., Seel, C. (2018). Revealed preference with limited consideration. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 10(1), 102-31. http://doi:10.1257/mic.20150343 [DOI:10.1257/mic.20150343]
Diaye, M. A., Gardes, F., & Starzec, C. (2008). GARP violation, Economic Environment Distortions and Shadow Prices: Evidence from Household Expenditure Panel Data. Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, 3-33. http://DOI:10.2307/27739817 [DOI:10.2307/27739817]
Diaye, M. A., Gardes, F., & Starzec, C. (2008). GARP violation, Economic Environment Distortions and Shadow Prices: Evidence from Household Expenditure Panel Data. Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, 3-33. http://DOI:10.2307/27739817 [DOI:10.2307/27739817]
Diaye, M. A., Gardes, F., and Starzec, C. (2008). GARP violation, Economic Environment Distortions and Shadow Prices: Evidence from Household Expenditure Panel Data. Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, 3-33. [DOI:10.2307/27739817]
Diaye, M. A., Gardes, F., and Starzec, C. (2008). GARP violation, Economic Environment Distortions and Shadow Prices: Evidence from Household Expenditure Panel Data. Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, 3-33. [DOI:10.2307/27739817]
Dong, F and Fuller, F. (2010). Dietary structural change in China's cities: Empirical fact or urban legend? Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 58(1), 73-91.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01159.x [DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01159.x|]
Dong, F and Fuller, F. (2010). Dietary structural change in China's cities: Empirical fact or urban legend? Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 58(1), 73-91.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01159.x [DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01159.x|]
Erfani, A., Davoodi, P., Sadeqi, F. (2017). Grouping of Monetary Assets in Iran Based on Nonparametric Approach to the Money Demand. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 52(4), 879-904. http://doi:10.22059/jte.2017.63663 (in Persian)
Erfani, A., Davoodi, P., Sadeqi, F. (2017). Grouping of Monetary Assets in Iran Based on Nonparametric Approach to the Money Demand. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 52(4), 879-904. http://doi:10.22059/jte.2017.63663 (in Persian)
Frechette, D. L and Jin, H. J. (2002). Distinguishing transitory nonlinear shocks from permanent structural change. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 13 (2): 231.248. [DOI:10.1016/S0954-349X(02)00005-X]
Frechette, D. L and Jin, H. J. (2002). Distinguishing transitory nonlinear shocks from permanent structural change. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 13 (2): 231.248. [DOI:10.1016/S0954-349X(02)00005-X]
Ghasori, Sh., Haghighi, A. (2016). Consumption of bread by Iranian households during 2007-2014. Statistics. 3(4), 46-52. (in Persian)
Ghasori, Sh., Haghighi, A. (2016). Consumption of bread by Iranian households during 2007-2014. Statistics. 3(4), 46-52. (in Persian)
Homayonifar, M. Tavana, H. (2008). Application of the methodology of revealed preferences to test the rational behavior of rural households. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 8(2). (in Persian)
Homayonifar, M. Tavana, H. (2008). Application of the methodology of revealed preferences to test the rational behavior of rural households. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 8(2). (in Persian)
Hossinzad, J., Pakroh, P. (2016). Analysis of the structural changes in consumer preferences of red meat and chicken meat in Iran. Journal of Animal Science Researches, 26(1), 175-186. (in Persian)
Hossinzad, J., Pakroh, P. (2016). Analysis of the structural changes in consumer preferences of red meat and chicken meat in Iran. Journal of Animal Science Researches, 26(1), 175-186. (in Persian)
Hovhannisyan, V. and Gould, B.W. (2012) Structural change in chines food preferences, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association's 2012 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington, August 12-14.
Hovhannisyan, V. and Gould, B.W. (2012) Structural change in chines food preferences, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association's 2012 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington, August 12-14.
Hovhannisyan, V., Kondaridze, M., Bastian, C., & Shanoyan, A. (2020). Empirical Evidence of Changing Food Demand and Consumer Preferences in Russia. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 52(3), 480-501. [DOI:10.1017/aae.2020.13]
Hovhannisyan, V., Kondaridze, M., Bastian, C., & Shanoyan, A. (2020). Empirical Evidence of Changing Food Demand and Consumer Preferences in Russia. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 52(3), 480-501. [DOI:10.1017/aae.2020.13]
International :union: of Bakers and Confectioners (IUBC). (2018). https://www.worldbakersconfectioners.org/en/about-us/
International :union: of Bakers and Confectioners (IUBC). (2018). https://www.worldbakersconfectioners.org/en/about-us/
Jin, H. J and Koo, W.W. (2003). The efects of the BSE outbreak in Japan on consumers preferences. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 30 (2), 173.192. [DOI:10.1093/erae/30.2.173]
Jin, H. J and Koo, W.W. (2003). The efects of the BSE outbreak in Japan on consumers preferences. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 30 (2), 173.192. [DOI:10.1093/erae/30.2.173]
Jin, H. J. (2006). Verifying timing and frequency of revealed preference violations and application to the BSE outbreak in Japan. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 54 (1): 139.157. [DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.2006.00042.x]
Jin, H. J. (2006). Verifying timing and frequency of revealed preference violations and application to the BSE outbreak in Japan. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 54 (1): 139.157. [DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.2006.00042.x]
Kafka, K. I. (2021). Economic Theory and Economic Reality: A Continuously Dialectic Relationship. In Bridging Microeconomics and Macroeconomics and the Effects on Economic Development and Growth. IGI Global, (pp. 1-26). [DOI:10.4018/978-1-7998-4933-9.ch001]
Kafka, K. I. (2021). Economic Theory and Economic Reality: A Continuously Dialectic Relationship. In Bridging Microeconomics and Macroeconomics and the Effects on Economic Development and Growth. IGI Global, (pp. 1-26). [DOI:10.4018/978-1-7998-4933-9.ch001]
Kohansal, M., Azam Rahmati, E. (2020). A Survey on Revealed Preferences of Iranian Citizens for Sugar and Lump Sugar. Agricultural Economics and Development, 28(110), 261-277. http://doi:10.30490/aead.2020.265689.1021 (in Persian)
Kohansal, M., Azam Rahmati, E. (2020). A Survey on Revealed Preferences of Iranian Citizens for Sugar and Lump Sugar. Agricultural Economics and Development, 28(110), 261-277. http://doi:10.30490/aead.2020.265689.1021 (in Persian)
Koo, A. Y. C. (1963). An Empirical Test of Revealed Preference Theory. Econometrica, 31(4), 646. [DOI:10.2307/1909164]
Koo, A. Y. C. (1963). An Empirical Test of Revealed Preference Theory. Econometrica, 31(4), 646. [DOI:10.2307/1909164]
Kouhbor M A, Aghaei M, Rezagholizadeh M. Investigation the Consumer Choice in the Use of Dental Services Care Applying Hekman Two-Step Procedure. jemr. 2019; 9 (34) :139-170, http://dx.doi.org/10.29252/jemr.9.34.139 (in Persian) [DOI:10.29252/jemr.9.34.139]
Kouhbor M A, Aghaei M, Rezagholizadeh M. Investigation the Consumer Choice in the Use of Dental Services Care Applying Hekman Two-Step Procedure. jemr. 2019; 9 (34) :139-170, http://dx.doi.org/10.29252/jemr.9.34.139 (in Persian) [DOI:10.29252/jemr.9.34.139]
Mehrara M, Yavari G, and Yaseri H. (2020). The impact of rice imports on domestic consumer welfare using the inverse demand system. Jemr, 11 (41) :51-89, http://dx.doi.org/10.21859/jemr.11.41.51 (in Persian)
Mehrara M, Yavari G, and Yaseri H. (2020). The impact of rice imports on domestic consumer welfare using the inverse demand system. Jemr, 11 (41) :51-89, http://dx.doi.org/10.21859/jemr.11.41.51 (in Persian)
Molla Yousefi, M. Hossinzad, J. (2018). Investigate changing consumer preferences for sugar and sugar baskets. 11th Biennial Conference of Iranian Agricultural Economics. Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran. (in Persian)
Molla Yousefi, M. Hossinzad, J. (2018). Investigate changing consumer preferences for sugar and sugar baskets. 11th Biennial Conference of Iranian Agricultural Economics. Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran. (in Persian)
Mosavi Samrin, S. (2013). The evolution of consumer theory in economics and some issues. Jostar Mobin, 23. (in Persian)
Mosavi Samrin, S. (2013). The evolution of consumer theory in economics and some issues. Jostar Mobin, 23. (in Persian)
Organization of Statistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (2015). Iran Household Expenditure and Income Report. (in Persian)
Organization of Statistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (2015). Iran Household Expenditure and Income Report. (in Persian)
Pastor-Bernier, A., Plott, C. R., & Schultz, W. (2017). Monkeys choose as if maximizing utility compatible with basic principles of revealed preference theory. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(10), E1766-E1775. [DOI:10.1073/pnas.1612010114]
Pastor-Bernier, A., Plott, C. R., & Schultz, W. (2017). Monkeys choose as if maximizing utility compatible with basic principles of revealed preference theory. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(10), E1766-E1775. [DOI:10.1073/pnas.1612010114]
Sakhi, F. Bostan, Y. Rezvani, M. & Fatahiardakani, A. (2019). Pasteurized and unpasteurized milk structural failure analysis of consumer preferences in urban and rural households Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, (In print). (in Persian)
Sakhi, F. Bostan, Y. Rezvani, M. & Fatahiardakani, A. (2019). Pasteurized and unpasteurized milk structural failure analysis of consumer preferences in urban and rural households Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, (In print). (in Persian)
Salami, H., Mohtashami, N. (2017). The Assessment of Absolute Poverty Lines Consistency in Provinces of Iran: The Revealed Preference Approach. Agricultural Economics, 11(1), 29-51. http://doi:10.22034/iaes.2017.24044 (in Persian)
Salami, H., Mohtashami, N. (2017). The Assessment of Absolute Poverty Lines Consistency in Provinces of Iran: The Revealed Preference Approach. Agricultural Economics, 11(1), 29-51. http://doi:10.22034/iaes.2017.24044 (in Persian)
Salami, H., Sadafi Abkenar, S. (2019). A non-parametric Approach to Specifying Changes of Preferences German Consumers for the Iranian and U.S. Pistachios. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 50(1), 79-95. http://doi:10.22059/ijaedr.2018.261600.668626 (in Persian)
Salami, H., Sadafi Abkenar, S. (2019). A non-parametric Approach to Specifying Changes of Preferences German Consumers for the Iranian and U.S. Pistachios. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 50(1), 79-95. http://doi:10.22059/ijaedr.2018.261600.668626 (in Persian)
Samuelson, P. A. (1938). A note on the pure theory of consumer's behaviour. Economica 5.17, 61-71. [DOI:10.2307/2549561]
Samuelson, P. A. (1938). A note on the pure theory of consumer's behaviour. Economica 5.17, 61-71. [DOI:10.2307/2549561]
Samuelson, P. A. (1948). Consumption theory in terms of revealed preference. Economica, 15(60), 243-253. [DOI:10.2307/2548836]
Samuelson, P. A. (1948). Consumption theory in terms of revealed preference. Economica, 15(60), 243-253. [DOI:10.2307/2548836]
Smeulders, B., Crama, Y., and Spieksma, F. C. (2018). Revealed preference theory: An algorithmic outlook. European Journal of Operational Research, 272(3), 803-815. [DOI:10.1016/j.ejor.2018.04.026]
Smeulders, B., Crama, Y., and Spieksma, F. C. (2018). Revealed preference theory: An algorithmic outlook. European Journal of Operational Research, 272(3), 803-815. [DOI:10.1016/j.ejor.2018.04.026]
Varian, H. R. (1982). Non-parametric methods in demand analysis. Economics Letters, 9, 23-29. [DOI:10.1016/0165-1765(82)90092-1]
Varian, H. R. (1982). Non-parametric methods in demand analysis. Economics Letters, 9, 23-29. [DOI:10.1016/0165-1765(82)90092-1]
Varian, H. R. (2006). Revealed preference. Samuelsonian economics and the twenty-first century, 99-115. [DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199298839.003.0007]
Varian, H. R. (2006). Revealed preference. Samuelsonian economics and the twenty-first century, 99-115. [DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199298839.003.0007]
World Bank. (2016). https://data.worldbank.org/
World Bank. (2016). https://data.worldbank.org/
Zanardi, A. (2000). Are Individual Preferences for Public Spending Consistent with Garp? Econpubblica Working Paper No. 71. Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.412240n
Zanardi, A. (2000). Are Individual Preferences for Public Spending Consistent with Garp? Econpubblica Working Paper No. 71. Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.412240n