اثرات پاندمی کووید -19 بر مصرف انرژی‌های اولیه در کشورهای منا: تحلیل داده-ستانده انرژی

نویسندگان
داوود منظور
سجاد رجبی
رضا رنجبران
امام صادق (ع)
10.52547/jemr.12.43.4
چکیده
با شیوع ویروس SARS-CoV-2 در کشورهای دنیا و همه‌گیری سریع آن در سطح وسیع، دولت‌ها تصمیم به اعمال محدودیت‌ها و فاصله‌گذاری اجتماعی کردند. محدودیت و تعطیلی بنگاه‌ها و فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و تغییر الگوی عرضه و تقاضا در این مدت، نگرانی‌ها را در میان اقتصاددانان تشدید کرده است. در این مقاله به مسئله تغییر مصرف انرژی‌های اولیه در 18 کشور منطقه منا پرداخته‌شده است. بدین منظور 10سناریو مختلف از وضعیت آینده این بیماری و محدودیت‌های ناشی از آن در نظر گرفته‌شده و از طریق مدل‌سازی داده-ستانده انرژی و ورود شوک‌های اقتصادی این بیماری به تعاملات بخش‌های اقتصاد، تغییرات مصرف انرژی‌های اولیه در 18 کشور محاسبه‌شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد طبق بهترین سناریو (بهبود سریع و کامل اپیدمی) کشور لیبی با 4.38% و عراق با 3.39% بیشترین کاهش را خواهند داشت و طبق بدترین سناریو (تشدید انفجاری بیماری و قرنطینه کامل) کشور لیبی با 12.6% و سوریه با 12.3% بیشترین کاهش مصرف انرژی را خواهند داشت. سه کشور سوریه، لبنان و ایران نیز بیشترین اختلاف را در سناریو بدبینانه و خوش‌بینانه داشته‌اند. همچنین با در نظر گرفتن مجموع تغییرات مصرف انرژی‌های اولیه کشورهای موردمطالعه، طبق خوش‌بینانه‌ترین سناریو مصرف انرژی‌های اولیه %1.5 و طبق بدترین سناریو 8.8% کاهش می‌یابد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
داده-ستانده
تحلیل بخشی
انرژی‌های اولیه
کرونا
اقتصاد انرژی

عنوان مقاله English

Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Primary Energy Consumption in MENA Countries: Energy Input-Output Analysis

نویسندگان English

Davood Manzoor
Sajad Rajabi
Reza Ranjbaran
Imam Sadiq University
چکیده English

With the outbreak of the coronavirus in countries around the world and its rapid spread, governments have decided to impose restrictions and social distancing. Restrictions and closures of businesses and economic activities, and changes in supply and demand patterns during this period, have exacerbated concerns among economists. This article deals with the issue of changing primary energy consumption in 18 countries in the MENA region. To this end, 10 different scenarios of the future state of the disease and its limitations have been considered. The results show that according to the best scenario (rapid and complete improvement of the epidemic), Libya with 4.38% and Iraq with 3.39% will have the largest decrease, and according to the worst-case scenario (explosive disease exacerbation and complete quarantine), Libya with 12.6% and Syria with 12.3% will have the greatest reduction in primary energy consumption. The three countries, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, also had the most differences in the pessimistic and optimistic scenario. Also, taking into account the total changes in the primary energy consumption of these 18 countries, according to the most optimistic scenario, the primary energy consumption will be reduced by 1.5% and according to the worst-case scenario, it will be reduced by 8.8%.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Input-Output
Sectoral Analysis
Primary Energy
Coronavirus
Energy Economics
Aruga, K., Islam, M.M., Jannat, A., 2020. Effects of COVID-19 on Indian energy consumption. Sustain. 12, 1-16. [DOI:10.3390/su12145616]
Aruga, K., Islam, M.M., Jannat, A., 2020. Effects of COVID-19 on Indian energy consumption. Sustain. 12, 1-16. [DOI:10.3390/su12145616]
BEN MCWILLIAMS, GEORG ZACHMANN, (2020), Electricity Consumption as a Near Real-time Indicator of COVID-19 Economic Effects, IAEE Energy Forum / Third Quarter 2020
BEN MCWILLIAMS, GEORG ZACHMANN, (2020), Electricity Consumption as a Near Real-time Indicator of COVID-19 Economic Effects, IAEE Energy Forum / Third Quarter 2020
Dietzenbacher, Erik & Lahr, Michael. (2013). Expanding Extractions. Economic Systems Research. 25. 341-360. [DOI:10.1080/09535314.2013.774266]
Dietzenbacher, Erik & Lahr, Michael. (2013). Expanding Extractions. Economic Systems Research. 25. 341-360. [DOI:10.1080/09535314.2013.774266]
Emanuela Menichetti, Abdelghani El Gharras, Barthélémy Duhamel and Sohbet Karbuz1, THE MENA REGION IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS, October 2018
Emanuela Menichetti, Abdelghani El Gharras, Barthélémy Duhamel and Sohbet Karbuz1, THE MENA REGION IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS, October 2018
Energy Transformation Newsletter (2019), Perspectives on Developments in the MENA Region in the Field of Energy, Parliamentary Research Center. 35), Volume 10.
Energy Transformation Newsletter (2019), Perspectives on Developments in the MENA Region in the Field of Energy, Parliamentary Research Center. 35), Volume 10.
EnergyWorld. Coronavirus Impact: Within Ten Days, a 26 Percent Fall in India's Energy Consumption. 2020. Available online: https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/coronavirus-impact-withintendays- 26-per-cent-fall-in-indias-energy-consumption/74854825 (accessed on 21 June 2020).
EnergyWorld. Coronavirus Impact: Within Ten Days, a 26 Percent Fall in India's Energy Consumption. 2020. Available online: https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/coronavirus-impact-withintendays- 26-per-cent-fall-in-indias-energy-consumption/74854825 (accessed on 21 June 2020).
Eurostat (European Statistical Office). 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat.
Eurostat (European Statistical Office). 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat.
Haddad, Eduardo Amaral, Fernando S. Perobelli, Inácio Fernandes de Araújo, (2020) Input-Output Analysis of COVID-19: Methodology for Assessing the Impacts of Lockdown Measures, Report number:TD NEREUS 01-2020Affiliation: University of São Paulo
Haddad, Eduardo Amaral, Fernando S. Perobelli, Inácio Fernandes de Araújo, (2020) Input-Output Analysis of COVID-19: Methodology for Assessing the Impacts of Lockdown Measures, Report number:TD NEREUS 01-2020Affiliation: University of São Paulo
https://behdasht.gov.ir
https://behdasht.gov.ir
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Iqbal, S., Bilal, A.R., Nurunnabi, M. et al. It is time to control the worst: testing COVID-19 outbreak, energy consumption and CO2 emission. Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020). [DOI:10.1007/s11356-020-11462-z]
Iqbal, S., Bilal, A.R., Nurunnabi, M. et al. It is time to control the worst: testing COVID-19 outbreak, energy consumption and CO2 emission. Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020). [DOI:10.1007/s11356-020-11462-z]
Jahangard, E. (2013). Input-Output Analysis; Technology, planning and development. 1. Tehran. Publication of statistics. (in persion)
Jahangard, E. (2013). Input-Output Analysis; Technology, planning and development. 1. Tehran. Publication of statistics. (in persion)
Ji Chou, Nai-Fong Kuo, Su-Ling Peng, (2004) Potential Impacts of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwan's Economy,Asian Economic Papers 3(1):84-99 [DOI:10.1162/1535351041747969]
Ji Chou, Nai-Fong Kuo, Su-Ling Peng, (2004) Potential Impacts of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwan's Economy,Asian Economic Papers 3(1):84-99 [DOI:10.1162/1535351041747969]
Leifeld, J., Menichetti, L. The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies. Nat Commun 9, 1071 (2018). [DOI:10.1038/s41467-018-03406-6]
Leifeld, J., Menichetti, L. The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies. Nat Commun 9, 1071 (2018). [DOI:10.1038/s41467-018-03406-6]
Lenzen M, Li M, Malik A, Pomponi F, Sun Y-Y, Wiedmann T, et al. (2020) Global socioeconomic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic. PLoS ONE 15(7): e0235654.
pone.0235654 [DOI:10.1371/journal.]
Lenzen M, Li M, Malik A, Pomponi F, Sun Y-Y, Wiedmann T, et al. (2020) Global socioeconomic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic. PLoS ONE 15(7): e0235654.
pone.0235654 [DOI:10.1371/journal.]
Maurizio Ciaschini, (1988), Input-Output Analysis: Current Developments (International Studies in Economic Modelling). Springer Netherlands. [DOI:10.1007/978-94-009-2607-3_1]
Maurizio Ciaschini, (1988), Input-Output Analysis: Current Developments (International Studies in Economic Modelling). Springer Netherlands. [DOI:10.1007/978-94-009-2607-3_1]
Menichetti, Emanuela; El Gharras, Abdelghani; Duhamel, Barthélémy; Karbuz Sohbet; THE MENA REGION IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS, Menara working paper, October 2018
Menichetti, Emanuela; El Gharras, Abdelghani; Duhamel, Barthélémy; Karbuz Sohbet; THE MENA REGION IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS, Menara working paper, October 2018
Miller R.E., Peter D.B (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Foundations and Extensions, Cambridge University Press. [DOI:10.1017/CBO9780511626982]
Miller R.E., Peter D.B (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Foundations and Extensions, Cambridge University Press. [DOI:10.1017/CBO9780511626982]
Mirnezami S R, Rajabi S, Moridi Farimani F. The Inflationary Effects of Increasing Electricity Price - in Different Consumption Tariffs - on Economic Activities and Household Cost: Input-Output Method. jemr. 2020; 11 (41) :91-144. (in persion)
Mirnezami S R, Rajabi S, Moridi Farimani F. The Inflationary Effects of Increasing Electricity Price - in Different Consumption Tariffs - on Economic Activities and Household Cost: Input-Output Method. jemr. 2020; 11 (41) :91-144. (in persion)
Mirnezami, S. R., & Rajabi, S. (2020). Changing Primary Energy Consumption Due to COVID-19: The Study 20 European Economies. [DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-42421/v1]
Mirnezami, S. R., & Rajabi, S. (2020). Changing Primary Energy Consumption Due to COVID-19: The Study 20 European Economies. [DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-42421/v1]
Mirnezami, S., Rajabi, S. (2020). Estimating the Impacts of COVID-19 on Iran Economy: Modelling Seven Scenarios. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 10(2), 7-19. (in persion)
Mirnezami, S., Rajabi, S. (2020). Estimating the Impacts of COVID-19 on Iran Economy: Modelling Seven Scenarios. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 10(2), 7-19. (in persion)
Ozturk, Feride; Energy consumption-GDP causality in MENA countries, Energy Sources, Volume 12, 2017, Pages 231-236 [DOI:10.1080/15567249.2015.1072597]
Ozturk, Feride; Energy consumption-GDP causality in MENA countries, Energy Sources, Volume 12, 2017, Pages 231-236 [DOI:10.1080/15567249.2015.1072597]
Rajabi S, Manzoor D. Assessing the Importance of Energy Sector Using the Expanding Extraction Method: Iranian Economy. jemr. 2019; 9 (35) :69-110. (in persion) [DOI:10.29252/jemr.9.35.69]
Rajabi S, Manzoor D. Assessing the Importance of Energy Sector Using the Expanding Extraction Method: Iranian Economy. jemr. 2019; 9 (35) :69-110. (in persion) [DOI:10.29252/jemr.9.35.69]
Sarfraz, M.; Shehzad, K.; Meran Sha, S.G. The impact of COVID-19 as a necessary evil on air pollution in India during the lockdown. Environ. Pollut. 2020. [CrossRef] [DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115080]
Sarfraz, M.; Shehzad, K.; Meran Sha, S.G. The impact of COVID-19 as a necessary evil on air pollution in India during the lockdown. Environ. Pollut. 2020. [CrossRef] [DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115080]
Shafiullah, G.; Raju, K.; Jamal, T.; Reddy, S.K. COVID-19: Impact Analysis and Recommendations for Power and Energy Sector Operation EnerarXiv-Preprint Preprint. 2020. Available online: https://www.researchgate. net/publication/341204513%0ACOVID-19 (accessed on 22 June 2020).
Shafiullah, G.; Raju, K.; Jamal, T.; Reddy, S.K. COVID-19: Impact Analysis and Recommendations for Power and Energy Sector Operation EnerarXiv-Preprint Preprint. 2020. Available online: https://www.researchgate. net/publication/341204513%0ACOVID-19 (accessed on 22 June 2020).
Smith, David, Moore, Lang, (2004) "The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model"
Smith, David, Moore, Lang, (2004) "The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model"
Souri, A. (2005). Input-Output Analysis. First Edition. Hamedan. Noor Alam Publications. (in persion)
Souri, A. (2005). Input-Output Analysis. First Edition. Hamedan. Noor Alam Publications. (in persion)
Suehiro, S. Impact of Covid-19 on Energy Demand. IEEJ e-Newsl. 2020, 184, 3. Available online: https: //eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8938.pdf (accessed on 24 June 2020).
Suehiro, S. Impact of Covid-19 on Energy Demand. IEEJ e-Newsl. 2020, 184, 3. Available online: https: //eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8938.pdf (accessed on 24 June 2020).
Wang, B.; Yang, Z.; Xuan, J.; Jiao, K. Crises and opportunities in terms of energy and AI technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Energy AI 2020. [CrossRef] [DOI:10.1016/j.egyai.2020.100013]
Wang, B.; Yang, Z.; Xuan, J.; Jiao, K. Crises and opportunities in terms of energy and AI technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Energy AI 2020. [CrossRef] [DOI:10.1016/j.egyai.2020.100013]
Warwick Mckibbin, Roshen Fernando, (2020) The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios, CAMA Working Paper [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3547729]
Warwick Mckibbin, Roshen Fernando, (2020) The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios, CAMA Working Paper [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3547729]
Xiao-Guang Yue, Xue-Feng Shao, Rita Yi Man Li, Michael James C Crabbe, Lili Mi, Siyan Hu, Julien S Baker, (2020) Gang Liang, Risk Management Analysis for Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, Journal of Risk and Financing Management, pp13-22 [DOI:10.3390/jrfm13020022]
Xiao-Guang Yue, Xue-Feng Shao, Rita Yi Man Li, Michael James C Crabbe, Lili Mi, Siyan Hu, Julien S Baker, (2020) Gang Liang, Risk Management Analysis for Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, Journal of Risk and Financing Management, pp13-22 [DOI:10.3390/jrfm13020022]
Xiuli Liu, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Shouyang Wang, Minghui Qin, Xin Xiang, Shan Zheng, Xuefeng Li, (2020) Modeling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation.
Xiuli Liu, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Shouyang Wang, Minghui Qin, Xin Xiang, Shan Zheng, Xuefeng Li, (2020) Modeling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation.