بررسی اثر شیوع ویروس کرونا بر ستانده کل اقتصاد ایران

نویسندگان
جواد طاهرپور 1
حجت‌الله میرزائی 1
حبیب سهیلی احمدی 2
فاطمه رجبی 1
1 دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
2 دانشگاه خوارزمی
10.52547/jemr.12.44.143
چکیده
با همه‌گیری کرونا، بسیاری از دولت‌ها با بده‌- بستان میان سلامت و اقتصاد مواجه شده‌اند. این مطالعه بر مبنای جدول داده-ستانده سال 1390 و استفاده از روش حذف فرضی به محاسبه اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم حذف 10 گروه فعالیت‌ اقتصادی بر ستاده کل اقتصاد ایران می‌پردازد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد، حذف فعالیت‌های حمل‌ونقل عمومی مسافر، مرغداری و تولید پوشاک بیشترین کاهش را در تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران ایجاد خواهند کرد. به علاوه، حذف مجموعه فعالیت‌های تأمین جا، خدمات تور و آژانس‌های مسافرتی و فعالیت‌های مربوط به غذا و آشامیدنی به عنوان نماینده بخش گردشگری می‌تواند نزدیک به یک درصد تولید کل را کاهش دهد. همه‌گیری کرونا تنها از مسیر فعالیت‌های دهگانه مورد بررسی در این مطالعه می‌تواند 5/6 درصد ستاده کل اقتصاد ایران را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. میزان کاهش واقعی ستاده کل، علاوه بر شدت سیاست‌های فاصله‌گذاری اجتماعی و تعطیلی فعالیت‌ها، به وضعیت رشد سایر بخش‌ها نیز بستگی خواهد داشت.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ستانده کل
روش حذف فرضی
ویروس کرونا
جدول داده-ستانده
همه‌گیری

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the Effect of Coronavirus Outbreak on Iran’s Gross Output

نویسندگان English

Javad Taherpoor 1
Hojatollah Mirzaei 1
Habib Soheili Ahmadi 2
Fatemeh Rajabi 1
1 Allameh Tabataba'i University
2 Kharazmi University
چکیده English

Many governments face a trade-off between health and economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Social distancing and lockdown caused decline in gross domestic product of coronavirus affected countries. In this study, by using the input-output table of 2011, the hypothetical extraction method is used to extract 10 selected economic activities hypothetically from economic system and examine the direct and indirect effect of this extraction on Iran’s gross output. Results show that extraction of passenger transport, aviculture and clothing sectors result in the greatest reductions in gross domestic product. Furthermore, extraction of accommodation services, travel agency and tour operator activities and foodservice industry as representative of the tourism sector is able to reduce total output by almost one percent. Considering these ten selected sectors, 6.5 percent of Iran’s total economic output would be impacted by coronavirus outbreak.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Total Output
Hypothetical Extraction Method
Novel Coronavirus
Input-Output Table
Epidemic
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