مدل‌سازی ارزش‌گذاری شرکت‌های مبتنی‌بر فناوری و نوآوری: نمونه موردی شرکت بورسی پتروصنعت گامرون

نویسندگان
علی میرزایی
علی ناظمی
سیاب ممی‌پور
دانشگاه خوارزمی
10.52547/jemr.12.45.83
چکیده
دستیابی به ارزش‌گذاری مبتنی بر واقعیت شرکت‌های نوآور، چالش انکارناپذیری برای بنیان‌‌گذاران و سرمایه‌گذاران نوآوری است. هدف‌از انجام این‌تحقیق، مدل‌سازی روشی‌ منطقی، نوین و قابل گسترش در ارزش‌گذاری شرکت‌های‌ نوآور است. در این راه با انتخاب ‌درآمد‌ قبل‌ از بهره‌ و مالیات (EBIT) شرکت نوآور مورد مطالعه، به‌عنوان متغیر وضعیت و شبیه‌سازی جریانات درآمد آتی آن براساس استاندارد حرکت حسابی براونی(ABM) و به‌کارگیری چارچوب روش ارزش‌گذاری اختیارات واقعی، مدل ارزش‌گذاری ساخته شد. دقت و کارآمدی این مدل، با استخراج داده‌های سال‌ مالی 1392 تا 1395 شرکت بورسی پتروصنعت گامرون و مقایسه‌ی نتایج مدل با ارزش بازاری شرکت در بورس اوراق بهادار، اثبات گردید. از دگرسو جهت آزمون میزان تاثیرگذاری نرخ‌ بهره‌ی‌ واقعی بر نتایج‌ مدل، با تعریف سه مقدار متفاوت نرخ‌ بهره‌ی‌ واقعی، تاثیر نوسان نرخ بهره‌ی واقعی در نتایج ارزش‌گذاری مدل بررسی شد. بدین صورت قدرت انعطاف‎پذیری بالای مدل با استفاده از روش ارزش‌گذاری اختیارات واقعی کاملا در نتایج تحقیق نمایان گشته است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ارزش‌گذاری ‌شرکت‌ها
تحلیل ‌اختیارات ‌واقعی
ارزش‌گذاری ‌اختیارات ‌واقعی
مدل‌ ساختاری
تحلیل ‌سرمایه‌گذاری‌ پروژه

عنوان مقاله English

Modeling Valuation of Companies Based on Technology and Innovation a Case Study on Gamron Petro Industry Co.

نویسندگان English

Ali Mirzaei
Ali Nazemi
Siab Mamipour
Kharazmi University
چکیده English

Achieving reality-based valuation of innovative companies is an undeniable challenge for the founders and investors of innovation. The purpose of this study is to model a logical, innovative and scalable approach to valuing innovative companies. In this way, by selecting the Earning Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) of the studied innovative company, as a state variable and simulating its future income flows based on Arithmetic Brownian Motion (ABM) standard and using the framework of Real Option Valuation (ROV) method, the valuation model was created. The accuracy and efficiency of this model was proved by extracting the data of the fiscal years from 1392 to 1395 of Gamron Petro Industry Exchange Company and comparing the results of the model with the market value of the company in Tehran Stock Exchange. On the other hand, in order to test the effect of real interest rate on the model results, by defining three different values of real interest rate, the effect of real interest rate fluctuation on the model evaluation results was investigated. Thus, the high flexibility of the model using the method of real option valuation is fully reflected in the research results.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Valuation of Companies
Real options analysis
Real Options Valuation
Structural Model
Project Investment Analysis
Abedin Darkoosh, S., & Rahimian, S. (2009). "Analysis of factors affecting housing prices in urban areas of Iran during the period (1370-1385): with emphasis on urban grouping", Quarterly Journal of Housing Economics, 46. 117-37. (In Persian)
Abedin Darkoosh, S., & Rahimian, S. (2009). "Analysis of factors affecting housing prices in urban areas of Iran during the period (1370-1385): with emphasis on urban grouping", Quarterly Journal of Housing Economics, 46. 117-37. (In Persian)
Asadpour, A. A. (2019). "The effect of inflation uncertainty and macroeconomic variables on housing prices in Iran", Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 37, 141-131. (In Persian)
Asadpour, A. A. (2019). "The effect of inflation uncertainty and macroeconomic variables on housing prices in Iran", Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 37, 141-131. (In Persian)
Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons.
Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons.
Bourassa, S. C., Hoesli, M., Scognamiglio, D., & Zhang, S. (2011). "Land leverage and house prices. Regional Science and Urban Economics", 41(2), 134-144. [DOI:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2010.11.002]
Bourassa, S. C., Hoesli, M., Scognamiglio, D., & Zhang, S. (2011). "Land leverage and house prices. Regional Science and Urban Economics", 41(2), 134-144. [DOI:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2010.11.002]
DiPasquale, D., & Wheaton, W. C. (1992). "The markets for real estate assets and space: A conceptual framework". Real Estate Economics, 20 (2), 181-198. [DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00579]
DiPasquale, D., & Wheaton, W. C. (1992). "The markets for real estate assets and space: A conceptual framework". Real Estate Economics, 20 (2), 181-198. [DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00579]
Fan, G-Z., Pu, M., Deng, X., & Eng Ong, S. (2018). "Optimal portfolio choices and the determination of housing rents under housing market uncertainty", Journal of Housing Economics, 41: 200-217. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhe.2018.06.003]
Fan, G-Z., Pu, M., Deng, X., & Eng Ong, S. (2018). "Optimal portfolio choices and the determination of housing rents under housing market uncertainty", Journal of Housing Economics, 41: 200-217. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhe.2018.06.003]
Gallin, J. (2004). "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Rents", Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=633082 [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.633082]
Gallin, J. (2004). "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Rents", Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=633082 [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.633082]
Gan, Q., Hill, R. J. (2008). "A new perspective on the relationship between house pricesand income". School of Economics University of New South Wales. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1313073]
Gan, Q., Hill, R. J. (2008). "A new perspective on the relationship between house pricesand income". School of Economics University of New South Wales. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1313073]
Gholizadeh, A.A., & Aghiqi, B. (2015). "Land Leverage and Housing Price Fluctuation in Iran", Iranian Journal of Applied Economic Studies, 4 (14), 67-49. (In Persian)
Gholizadeh, A.A., & Aghiqi, B. (2015). "Land Leverage and Housing Price Fluctuation in Iran", Iranian Journal of Applied Economic Studies, 4 (14), 67-49. (In Persian)
Gholizadeh, A. A., and Nowrozi-nejad, M. (2018). Housing Price Dynamics and Economic Fluctuations in Iran with a Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach, Economic Modeling Research Quarterly, No. 36, pp. 37-73. (In Persian) [DOI:10.29252/jemr.9.36.37]
Gholizadeh, A. A., and Nowrozi-nejad, M. (2018). Housing Price Dynamics and Economic Fluctuations in Iran with a Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach, Economic Modeling Research Quarterly, No. 36, pp. 37-73. (In Persian) [DOI:10.29252/jemr.9.36.37]
Hirota, S., Löffelholz, K-S., and Udagawa, D. (2020). "Does owners' purchase price affect rent offered? Experimental evidence", Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 25: 100260. [DOI:10.1016/j.jbef.2019.100260]
Hirota, S., Löffelholz, K-S., and Udagawa, D. (2020). "Does owners' purchase price affect rent offered? Experimental evidence", Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 25: 100260. [DOI:10.1016/j.jbef.2019.100260]
Hyslop, D.R., Rea, D. (2019). Do housing allowances increase rents? Evidence from a discrete policy change, Journal of Housing Economics 46, 101657. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhe.2019.101657]
Hyslop, D.R., Rea, D. (2019). Do housing allowances increase rents? Evidence from a discrete policy change, Journal of Housing Economics 46, 101657. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhe.2019.101657]
Izdkhasti, H., Arab Mazar, A., & Ahmadi, K. (2019). "Analysis of the Impact of Taxes on Real Estate and Housing Transfer on Reducing Housing Market Turbulence in Urban Areas of Iran", Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 91, 155-191. (In Persian)
Izdkhasti, H., Arab Mazar, A., & Ahmadi, K. (2019). "Analysis of the Impact of Taxes on Real Estate and Housing Transfer on Reducing Housing Market Turbulence in Urban Areas of Iran", Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 91, 155-191. (In Persian)
Kuroda, Y. (2018). "The effect of school quality on housing rents: Evidence from Matsue city in Japan", Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 50:16-25. [DOI:10.1016/j.jjie.2018.05.002]
Kuroda, Y. (2018). "The effect of school quality on housing rents: Evidence from Matsue city in Japan", Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 50:16-25. [DOI:10.1016/j.jjie.2018.05.002]
Li, H. & Wei, Y. D. & Wu, Y., (2019). "Analyzing the private rental housing market in Shanghai with open data," Land Use Policy, 1 (85), 271-284. [DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.04.004]
Li, H. & Wei, Y. D. & Wu, Y., (2019). "Analyzing the private rental housing market in Shanghai with open data," Land Use Policy, 1 (85), 271-284. [DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.04.004]
Lima, V. (2020). "The financialization of rental housing: Evictions and rent regulation", Cities, 105: 102787. [DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2020.102787]
Lima, V. (2020). "The financialization of rental housing: Evictions and rent regulation", Cities, 105: 102787. [DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2020.102787]
Maleki, B. (2016). "Housing Market Analysis in Iran", Fourth Edition, Industrial Management Organization Publications. (In Persian)
Maleki, B. (2016). "Housing Market Analysis in Iran", Fourth Edition, Industrial Management Organization Publications. (In Persian)
Mankiw, N. G., Weil, D. N. (1989). "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market". Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19 (2), 235-258. [DOI:10.1016/0166-0462(89)90005-7]
Mankiw, N. G., Weil, D. N. (1989). "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market". Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19 (2), 235-258. [DOI:10.1016/0166-0462(89)90005-7]
Mayer, C. J., & Somerville, C. T. (1996). "Regional housing supply and credit constraints". New England Economic Review, 39.
Mayer, C. J., & Somerville, C. T. (1996). "Regional housing supply and credit constraints". New England Economic Review, 39.
Mehregan, N., & Ghaffari, V. (2016). "Factors Affecting Rents in Iranian Cities Using Composite Data", Journal of Housing Economics, 56, 100-177. (In Persian)
Mehregan, N., & Ghaffari, V. (2016). "Factors Affecting Rents in Iranian Cities Using Composite Data", Journal of Housing Economics, 56, 100-177. (In Persian)
Mousavi, M.H., & Droudian, H. (2015). "Analysis of Factors Affecting Housing Prices in Tehran", Economic Modeling Quarterly, Year 9, 127-103. (In Persian)
Mousavi, M.H., & Droudian, H. (2015). "Analysis of Factors Affecting Housing Prices in Tehran", Economic Modeling Quarterly, Year 9, 127-103. (In Persian)
Poterba, J. M. (1984). "Tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing: an asset-market approach". The quarterly journal of economics, 4 (99),729-752. [DOI:10.2307/1883123]
Poterba, J. M. (1984). "Tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing: an asset-market approach". The quarterly journal of economics, 4 (99),729-752. [DOI:10.2307/1883123]
Rahmani, T., & Isfahani, P. (2015). "An Analysis of the Impact of Supply and Demand Factors on Housing Prices in Iran", Housing Economics Quarterly, 55, 11-30. (In Persian)
Rahmani, T., & Isfahani, P. (2015). "An Analysis of the Impact of Supply and Demand Factors on Housing Prices in Iran", Housing Economics Quarterly, 55, 11-30. (In Persian)
Wang, H. (2020). "Stickiness of rental rate and housing vacancy rate", Economics Letters, 195: 109487. [DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109487]
Wang, H. (2020). "Stickiness of rental rate and housing vacancy rate", Economics Letters, 195: 109487. [DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109487]
Wen, H., Goodman, A. C. (2013). "Relationship between urban land price and housing price: Evidence from 21 provincial capitals in China". Habitat International, 40, 9-17. [DOI:10.1016/j.habitatint.2013.01.004]
Wen, H., Goodman, A. C. (2013). "Relationship between urban land price and housing price: Evidence from 21 provincial capitals in China". Habitat International, 40, 9-17. [DOI:10.1016/j.habitatint.2013.01.004]
Wang, H. (2020). "Stickiness of rental rate and housing vacancy rate", Economics Letters, 195: 109487. [DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109487]
Wang, H. (2020). "Stickiness of rental rate and housing vacancy rate", Economics Letters, 195: 109487. [DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109487]
Xu, T. (2017). "The Relationship between Interest Rates, Income, GDP Growth and House Prices". Research in Economics and Management, 2 (1), 30. [DOI:10.22158/rem.v2n1p30]
Xu, T. (2017). "The Relationship between Interest Rates, Income, GDP Growth and House Prices". Research in Economics and Management, 2 (1), 30. [DOI:10.22158/rem.v2n1p30]