گسترش آموزش عالی و عدم تعادل در بازار کار: رویکرد داده‌های ترکیبی پویا

نویسنده
دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)
چکیده
ایران در سال‏های اخیر با فراگیرسازی شدید آموزش عالی مواجه بوده است، به‌گونه‌ای که تعداد دانشجویان کشور در بازه ۱۳۸۴-۱۳۹۴ تقریباً سه برابر شده است. علیرغم افزایش کمی آموزش عالی در کشور نرخ بیکاری در کشور نه تنها کاهش نداشته است بلکه در بسیاری از استان‌ها افزایش یافته است. با عنایت به هزینه‌های قابل توجهی که سالانه در سطح ملی بر روی آموزش عالی صورت می‌گیرد، چنانچه توسعه آموزش عالی در عمل با افزایش نرخ بیکاری توأم باشد، لازم است در خصوص سیاست‌های آموزش عالی به‌ویژه در راستای متناسب‌سازی کمیت و کیفت آموزش عالی با نیازهای بازار کار در استان‌ها بازنگری صورت گیرد. پژوهش حاضر با در نظر گرفتن مشاهدات کشوری و استانی، رابطه‏ گسترش آموزش عالی و عدم تعادل در بازار کار را در بازه ۱۳۸۴-۱۳۹۶ به روش کمی مورد ارزیابی قرار می‌دهد. در این راستا، تعداد ثبت‌نام‌شدگان در دانشگاه‌ها، تعداد دانشجویان و بودجه‏ دولتی آموزش عالی به عنوان متغیر نشانگر گسترش آموزش عالی انتخاب شده و سعی شده است تا رابطه این متغیرها با عدم تعادل در بازار کار مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. در سطح کشوری این بررسی در قالب آزمون همبستگی‏ در وقفه‏های مختلف صورت می‌گیرد و در سطح استانی از روش علیت گرنجر و تحلیل داده‏های ترکیبی پویا با کمک تخمین‏زننده‏های گشتاوری تعمیم‏یافته سیستمی (GMM) استفاده خواهد شد. نتایج بررسی‏ها نشان می‏دهد که در سطح کشوری، همبستگی مثبتی بین بودجه آموزش عالی و نرخ بیکاری در کشور وجود دارد. همچنین، در سطح استانی رابطه علیت بین تعداد ثبت‌نام‌شدگان در دانشگاه‌ها و تعداد دانشجویان از یک سو و نرخ بیکاری استانی از سوی دیگر تأیید می‏شود. به علاوه، برآورد مدل‏های داده‏های ترکیبی پویا با تصریح‏های مختلف حاکی از آن است که تعداد ثبت‏نام‏شدگان در دانشگاه‌ها و بودجه‏ دولتی آموزش عالی در استان‌ها به عنوان متغیر نشانگر گسترش آموزش عالی، رابطه مثبت و معناداری با نرخ بیکاری استانی دارند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Higher Education and Labor Market Imbalances in Iran: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

نویسنده English

Davood Manzoor
Imam Sadiq University
چکیده English

Higher Education (HE) in Iran have been subject to a major expansion and massification in the recent years, in a way that number of students approximately tripled from 2006 to 2016. This would have possibly affected labor market or unemployment rate of the country. Considering both provincial and national level, this study investigates the relationship between HE expansion and unemployment rate in the recent era (2006-2018) empirically. In this regard, number of assignments, students, and the state budget allocated to HE institutions are taken as variables indicating HE expansion so that their relationship with unemployment rate can be explored. The empirical methodology of this study in national level is to consider trends and calculating correlations for different lags. In provincial level, Granger causality and dynamic panel data regression with systemic GMM estimators are utilized as methods of the analysis. The results show a positive significant correlation exists between the state budget of HE and unemployment rate. Moreover, in provincial level, number of students and assignments Granger cause unemployment in some lags. Dynamic panel data model with numerous specifications also approve a positive significant relationship between HE expansion in provinces and their unemployment rate, however, the effect is not the same considering different models, especially for number of students.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Higher Education
Unemployment
Dynamic Panel Data
System GMM
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