بررسی اثرات تامین کسری بودجه بخش دولتی از سیستم بانکی: شواهدی از الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی

نویسندگان
حسین صمصامی مزرعه آخوند
احمد بختیاری
دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
چکیده
کنترل مدیریت نشده رشد نقدینگی به دلیل پیامدهای منفی آن، همواره مورد توجه سیاستگذاران بوده است. یکی از عوامل ایجاد نقدینگی، استقراض دولت از بانک مرکزی می ­باشد. در همین راستا از دهه هشتاد به بعد، بحث عدم استقراض از بانک مرکزی در بین دولت­ها مطرح شد و دولت­ها با وجود محدود کردن خود از منابع بانک مرکزی، بانک­ها و مؤسسات اعتباری غیر­بانکی را مجبور به استقراض کرده اند. به این منظور یک الگوی اقتصاد کلان با لحاظ کردن خالص بدهی بخش دولتی به بانک مرکزی و خالص بدهی بخش دولتی به بانک­ها و مؤسسات اعتباری غیر­بانکی از کانال تراز مالی دولت طراحی شده است که روابط متغیرهای اقتصادی را در چارچوب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی کینزین­ های جدید با لحاظ اصطکاک­ های اسمی و حقیقی (DSGE) ) ارائه می­ دهد. پس از تعیین مقادیر ورودی الگو و کالیبره کردن پارامترها با استفاده از اطلاعات اقتصاد ایران طی دوره 1399-1379، نتایج گشتاورها و آزمون­های آماری حاکی از مناسب بودن الگوی ارائه شده برای شبیه ­سازی اقتصاد ایران است. یافته ­های حاصل از داده­ های پژوهش نشان از این دارد که تکانه خالص بدهی بخش دولتی به بانکها و مؤسسات اعتباری غیر بانکی مرکزی اثر مثبت برروی سرمایه ­گذاری دارد بدین صورت که نقدینگی جدیدی توسط دولت که از موسسات و بانک­ها اخذ شده به شکل سپرده ­های جدیدی در اختیار بخش تولید شده است. تکانه خالص بدهی بخش دولتی به بانک مرکزی باعث افزایش مصرف در تابع مطلوبیت و مصرف کل ترکیبی از کالاها و خدمات عمومی عرضه شده از سوی دولت و همچنین کالاها و خدمات مصرفی خصوصی مؤثر می­ شود. همچنین تکانه خالص بدهی بخش دولتی به بانک مرکزی باعث افزایش تورم و رشد خفیف تولید، و تکانه خالص بدهی بخش دولتی به بانک ­ها و مؤسسات اعتباری باعث افزایش تورم و تحریک تولید می ­شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
کسری بودجه
استقراض دولت از سیستم بانکی
متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی
DSGE

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the effects of financing the public sector budget deficit from the banking system: Evidence from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE)

نویسندگان English

Hossein Samsami mazrae akhoond
Ahmad Bakhtiyari
چکیده English

The unmanaged control of liquidity growth has always been the concern of policymakers due to its negative consequences. Recently, policymakers have focused on the needing to control the liquidity growth. One of the liquidity drivers is the government borrowing from the central bank. In this regard, governments have concerned for the issue of not borrowing from the central bank since the 2000s onwards. Although governments are limiting themselves for this borrowing, they force banks and financial institutions to borrow from that source. For this purpose, this study designs a macroeconomic model by including the net debt of the public sector to the central bank as well as to banks and financial institutions via the government's financial balance channel. This model shows the relationships of economic variables in the framework of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, considering nominal and real frictions. The results confirm the reliability of the model for simulating the economy of Iran after determining the input values and calibrating the parameters of the model using the Iran's economy data during 2000-2020. The findings from the research data show that the net increase in government sector debt to banks and non-banking credit institutions has a positive effect on investment, in such a way that new liquidity by the government obtained from institutions and banks It has been produced in the form of new deposits at the disposal of the department. The net impulse of public sector debt to the central bank causes an increase in consumption in the utility function and the total consumption of a combination of public goods and services provided by the government as well as private consumption goods and services. Also, the net impulse of public sector debt to the central bank causes an increase in inflation and a slight growth of production, and the net impulse of public sector debt to banks and credit institutions increases inflation and stimulates production.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Budget deficit
government borrowing from the banking system
Macroeconomic Variables
DSGE
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