سیاست پولی بهینه با لحاظ نااطمینانی در اقتصاد ایران(الگوی DSGE)

نویسندگان
حامد پوراکبر 1
سیما اسکندری سبزی 1
امیرعلی فرهنگ 2
رستم قره داغی 1
1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، میانه
2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
چکیده
اخیراً عدم قطعیت متغیر در زمان، توجه زیادی را از سوی سیاست گذاران و دانشگاهیان به خود جلب کرده است و باعث رشد ادبیات، شناسایی مکانیسم های انتقال شوک های عدم قطعیت شده است. انگیزه قیمت­گذاری احتیاطی مکانیسم مهمی است که شوک های عدم قطعیت را تقویت می کند. نتیجه‌گیری از مقایسه تخصیص‌ها تحت سیاست‌های پولی بهینه در دو رویکرد رایج تعیین قیمت، کالوو و روتنبرگ مدلسازی می­ شود. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی سیاست پولی بهینه با لحاظ نااطمینانی در اقتصاد ایران در شرایط متفاوت قیمت گذاری با مدلسازی دو رویکرد رایج تعیین قیمت، کالوو و روتنبرگ می باشد که براساس یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویا تصادفی مبتنی بر دیدگاه کینزین جدید با بهره گیری از اطلاعات و آمارهای موجود اقتصاد ایران طی بازه زمانی ۱۳80-1400 متناسب با واقعیات اقتصاد ایران طراحی گردیده است. نتایج نشان داد که شوک‌های عدم قطعیت تحت مفروضات قیمت‌گذاری کالوو و روتنبرگ زمانی که سیاست پولی بر اساس قانون تجربی تیلور تنظیم می‌شود، به طور متفاوتی در اقتصاد ایران منتشر می‌شوند. به اینصورت که آنها مانند شوک‌های فشار هزینه تحت قیمت‌گذاری کالوو و شوک‌های تقاضای منفی تحت قیمت‌گذاری روتنبرگ رفتار می‌کنند. با این حال، سیاست پولی بهینه به تثبیت توامان تورم و شکاف تولید تحت هر دو فرض قیمت‌گذاری منجر می­شود. به بیان دیگر اتخاذ سیاست­های پولی بهینه می­تواند منجر به ثبات اقتصادی شود. زیرا سیاست پولی بهینه نه تنها انگیزه پس‌انداز احتیاطی خانوارها را حذف می‌کند، بلکه انگیزه قیمت‌گذاری احتیاطی بنگاه­ها را نیز حذف می‌کند، که کانال کلیدی است که پیش‌بینی تعیین قیمت کالوو را از پیش‌بینی قیمت‌گذاری روتنبرگ تحت تیلور تجربی متفاوت می‌کند. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر، استفاده از قاعده پولی برای سیاست گذاری در جهت ایجاد لنگر اسمی برای فعالین اقتصادی و عدم استفاده از سیاستهای صلاحدیدی در جهت عدم ایجاد انتظارات تورمی در اقتصاد، پیشنهاد می­ گردد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
نااطمینانی
DSGE
روتنبرگ
کالوو
ایران

عنوان مقاله English

Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty in Iran's economy (DSGE model)

نویسندگان English

hamed pourakbar 1
eskandari sabzi 1
Amir Ali farhang 2
rostam garehdaghi 1
1 Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University,Miyaneh
2 Department of Economics, Payame Noor University(PNU),Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Recently, time-varying uncertainty has attracted a lot of attention from policymakers and academics and has led to the growth of literature identifying the transmission mechanisms of uncertainty shocks. Precautionary pricing incentive is an important mechanism that amplifies uncertainty shocks. The conclusion from the comparison of allocations under optimal monetary policies is modeled in two common pricing approaches, Calvo and Rotemberg. The main goal of this research is to investigate the optimal monetary policy with uncertainty in Iran's economy under different pricing conditions by modeling two common pricing approaches, Calvo and Rotemberg, which is based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the new Keynesian perspective using The available information and statistics of Iran's economy from 2001 to 2021, have been designed according to the realities of Iran's economy. The results showed that the uncertainty shocks under Calvo and Rotemberg's pricing assumptions when the monetary policy is adjusted based on Taylor's empirical law are spread differently in the Iranian economy. In such a way that they behave like cost pressure shocks under Calvo pricing and negative demand shocks under Rotemberg pricing. However, the optimal monetary policy leads to the stabilization of both inflation and output gap under both pricing assumptions. In other words, adopting optimal monetary policies can lead to economic stability. Because optimal monetary policy removes not only the discretionary savings incentive of households but also the discretionary pricing incentive of firms, the key channel differentiates Calvo's pricing prediction from Rothenberg's pricing prediction under empirical Taylor. According to the results of the present research, it is suggested to use the monetary rule for policy-making to create a nominal anchor for economic actors and not to use discretionary policies in order not to create inflationary expectations in the economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Uncertainty
DSGE
Rotemberg
Calvo
Iran
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