تاثیر سیاست های پولی و مالی بر منابع سازمان تامین اجتماعی

نویسندگان
لیلا احمدوند 1
مسعود صوفی مجیدپور 2
محمود محمودزاده 2
1 سازمان تامین اجتماعی
2 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی
چکیده
سازمان تامین اجتماعی به عنوان بزرگترین نهاد فعال در حوزۀ تامین اجتماعی و بیمۀ کشور، نقشی حساس در وضعیت اجتماعی، معیشتی و اقتصادی ایفا می­ کند، به نحوی که بروز هر نوع اخلال در وضعیت اقتصادی آن سازمان، زمینۀ بحران در کل سیستم اقتصادی را فراهم می ­آورد. از آن­جایی ­که ایفای تعهدات سازمان به جامعه بر اساس توانایی اقتصادی و منابعی است که در اختیار دارد، لازم است تا تحلیل دقیقی در مورد عوامل موثر بر منابع سازمان صورت پذیرد و متناسب با آن اقدام به سیاستگذاری گردد. در این پژوهش تاثیر سیاست­های پولی و مالی بر وضعیت منابع سازمان تامین اجتماعی در دو مدل بررسی شده است. بازۀ زمانی پژوهش حد فاصل سال­های 1350 تا 1399 می ­باشد و به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده ­ها از روش خودرگرسیون با وقفه ­های گسترده (ARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می ­دهد که نرخ بهره در بلندمدت، تولید ناخالص داخلی حقیقی، نقدینگی و نسبت سایرشاغلین به کل بیمه ­شدگان، تاثیر مثبت و معنی­ داری بر وضعیت منابع سازمان تامین اجتماعی داشته ­اند. همچنین تاثیر نسبت درآمدهای مالیاتی به تولید ناخالص داخلی بر منابع سازمان منفی می ­باشد. در همین راستا برای بهبود وضعیت منابع، پیشنهاد می­ شود تا علاوه بر سیاست های اقتصادی (همچون عدم رشد بی­ رویه مالیات­ها، تنظیم نقدینگی و نرخ بهره در سطحی متناسب با افزایش رشد اقتصادی)، به سیاست­ های جمعیتی و افزایش جوانی جمعیت نیز توجه کافی گردد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
سازمان تامین اجتماعی
سیاست های پولی و مالی
نسبت پشتیبانی
خودتوضیح برداری با وقفه های توزیع

عنوان مقاله English

The impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the resources of the Social Security Organization

نویسنده English

Leila Ahmadvand 1
چکیده English

Social security organization, as the largest active institution in the field of social security and insurance of the country, plays a critical role in the social, livelihood and economic situation, so that any kind of disturbance in the economic situation of that organization creates a crisis in the entire economic system. provides Since the fulfillment of the obligations of the organization to the society is based on the economic ability and the resources it has, it is necessary to make a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the resources of the organization and make policies accordingly. In this research, the effect of monetary and financial policies on the state of social security organization's resources has been investigated in two models. The time period of the research is between 1350 and 1399, and in order to analyze the data, the vector autoregression method with distributed intervals (ARDL) was used. The results of the research show that the real GDP, liquidity, interest rate, exchange rate, support ratio and the ratio of compulsory workers to the total insured have a positive and significant impact on the state of social security organization's resources. Also, the effect of the ratio of tax revenues to GDP on the organization's resources is negative. In this regard, in order to improve the situation of resources, it is suggested that, in addition to economic policies (such as no excessive growth of taxes, regulation of liquidity and interest rates at a level commensurate with the increase in economic growth), population policies and increasing youth The population should also be given enough attention.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Social Security Organization
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Support Ratio
Self-Explanation with Distribution Intervals
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