تحلیل اثرات اقتصادی بلایای طبیعی با لحاظ تغییرات اقلیمی و پوشش بیمه‎ ای

نویسندگان
لیلی نیاکان 1
وحید ماجد 2
سعید کریمی معتمد 2
1 پژوهشکده بیمه
2 دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
هدف: بلایای طبیعی، به‌ویژه آن‌هایی که ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی هستند، تأثیرات گسترده‌ای بر اقتصاد و جوامع وارد می‌کنند. این بلایا، علاوه‎بر خسارات مستقیم، خسارات غیرمستقیمی نیز به همراه دارند که می‌تواند رشد اقتصادی را به‎طور جدی تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. انتظار می‌رود با توجه به تغییرات اقلیمی و افزایش آسیب‌پذیری جوامع، این خسارات در آینده بیشتر شود. این پژوهش به بررسی یکی از اثرات اقتصادی غیرمستقیم بلایای طبیعی، یعنی کاهش نرخ رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی (GDP)، و نقش بیمه در کاهش این اثرات پرداخته است. هدف اصلی پژوهش، تحلیل تأثیر بلایای طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای عضو و غیرعضو سازمان همکاری و توسعه اقتصادی (OECD) و ارزیابی نقش بیمه در تعدیل این اثرات است.

روش: با استفاده از داده‌های پانلی کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و در حال توسعه و به‌کارگیری مدل‌های رگرسیون پانل با اثرات ثابت، پژوهش به بررسی اثر بلایای طبیعی بر رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی و نقش بیمه در تعدیل این اثرات پرداخته است.

یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که بلایای طبیعی تأثیر منفی معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی هر دو گروه کشورها دارند، اما بیمه به‌طور قابل‌توجهی این اثرات منفی را کاهش می‌دهد.

نتیجه‌گیری: توسعه پوشش بیمه‌ای در کشورهای در حال توسعه می‌تواند به کاهش اثرات منفی اقتصادی ناشی از بلایای طبیعی و تقویت پایداری رشد اقتصادی، به‌ویژه در کشورهایی مانند ایران، کمک کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
بلایای طبیعی
بیمه
رشد اقتصادی
تغییرات اقلیمی

عنوان مقاله English

Economic Effects of Natural Disasters in terms of Climate Change and Insurance

نویسندگان English

Leili Niakan 1
Vahid Majed 2
Saeed Karirmi Moatamed 2
1 Insurance Research Center
2 Faculty of Economics University of Tehran
چکیده English

Objective: Natural disasters, especially those caused by climate change, have far-reaching effects on economies and societies. Disasters bring direct and indirect damages that can seriously affect economic growth. It is expected that these damages will increase even more in the future due to climate change and increasing vulnerability of societies. Study has investigated one of the indirect economic effects of natural disasters, i.e. reducing the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), and the role of insurance in reducing these effect. The main goal of the study is to analyze the impact of natural disasters on economic growth in member and non-member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and evaluate the role of insurance in moderating these effects.

Materials and Methods: Using panel data from developed and developing countries and using panel regression models with fixed effects, the research has investigated the effect of natural disasters on GDP growth and the role of insurance in adjusting these effects.

Results: The results show that natural disasters have a significant negative effect on the economic growth of both groups of countries, but insurance significantly reduces these negative effects.

Conclusion: Development of insurance coverage in developing countries can help reduce the negative economic effects caused by natural disasters and strengthen the sustainability of economic growth, especially in countries like Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Natural disasters
Insurance
Economic Growth
Climate Change
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