مدل‌سازی اقتصادی اثرات ناترازی گاز طبیعی بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی ایران

نویسندگان
محمد صیادی 1
حامد حیدریان 1
سجاد رجبی 2
1 دانشگاه خوارزمی
2 دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)
چکیده
گاز طبیعی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین حامل انرژی در اقتصاد ایران، نقش حیاتی در تولید و مصرف کشور ایفا می‌کند و انتظار می‌رود سهم آن در آینده افزایش یابد. بروز ناترازی در عرضه گاز، آثار قابل توجهی بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش‌های اقتصادی و تولید ناخالص داخلی دارد. این تحقیق با استفاده از مدل داده - ستانده به‌روز شده سال ۱۴۰۲، اثرات ناترازی گاز بر ارزش‌افزوده و GDP ایران را تحلیل می‌کند. چهار سناریو در مواجهه با ناترازی‌ها مورد بررسی و ارزیابی قرار گرفته‌اند: ۱) عدم اولویت‌دهی به بخش‌های اقتصادی، ۲) اولویت‌دهی با ملاحظات اجتماعی و سیاسی، ۳) عدم اولویت‌دهی همراه با فقدان مدیریت مصرف و ۴) ترکیب ملاحظات اجتماعی-سیاسی با عدم اجرای سیاست‌های مصرف. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد، بخش‌هایی مانند تولید مواد شیمیایی، تولید و توزیع گاز و تولید برق بیشترین آسیب (کاهش تولید) را از ناترازی متحمل می‌شوند، در حالی که بخش‌هایی با وابستگی کمتر مانند تولید وسایل نقلیه و پرورش طیور، آسیب کمتری می‌بینند. علاوه بر این، در سناریوی دوم (ناترازی ۱۲ درصد)، کاهش GDP در افق ۱۴۲۰ حدود ۳ درصد بیشتر از سناریوی سوم (ناترازی ۲۱ درصد) برآورد شده است. لازم به ذکر است که مدل داده–ستانده مورد استفاده دارای محدودیت‌هایی همچون فرض خطی بودن روابط تولید، ثابت بودن ضرایب فنی و نادیده گرفتن جانشینی انرژی و اثرات قیمتی است و بنابراین نتایج این مطالعه باید به‌عنوان تحلیل پایه و نه پیش‌بینی قطعی در نظر گرفته شود. یافته‌ها همچنین نشان می‌دهد که ناترازی گاز نه تنها یک چالش فنی، بلکه یک عامل اثرگذار بر سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی و طراحی راهبردهای اولویت‌بندی منابع است که می‌تواند تاب‌آوری کل اقتصاد را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
گاز طبیعی
ناترازی
تولید ناخالص داخلی
اقتصاد ایران
ارزش افزوده اقتصادی

عنوان مقاله English

Economic Modeling of the Impacts of Natural Gas Imbalance on the Value Added of Various Economic Sectors in Iran

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Sayadi 1
Hamed Heidarian 1
Sajad Rajabi 2
1 Kharazmi University
2 Imam Sadiq University
چکیده English

Natural gas is currently the most important energy carrier in Iran’s production and consumption mix, and its share is expected to increase in the coming years. Any imbalance in the supply and demand of this key energy source can have significant effects on the value added across various economic sectors. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of natural gas imbalances on sectoral value added and Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP), using an updated input–output model based on 2023 data. Four scenarios are considered: (1) no prioritization of sectors under imbalance conditions; (2) prioritization based on social and political considerations; (3) no prioritization along with the absence of consumption management policies; and (4) a combination of social-political prioritization with lack of consumption control policies. The results indicate that sectors such as “chemical products manufacturing,” “natural gas production and distribution,” and “electricity generation and distribution” suffer the most significant declines in value added, output, and employment due to their direct and indirect dependence on natural gas. In contrast, sectors like “motor vehicle manufacturing” and “poultry farming,” which are minimally dependent on gas, experience relatively lower economic losses. Moreover, under the second scenario (12% imbalance without affecting final demand), GDP in 2041 is projected to decline by about 3% more compared to the third scenario (21% imbalance with uniform impact across all sectors).

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Natural gas
imbalance
Gross Domestic Product
Iranian Economy
economic value added
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