تعیین نرخ مالیات بر انتشار کربن با لحاظ رشد درون‌زا: مطالعه موردی ایران

نویسندگان
هایده نوروزی
روح اله شهنازی
ابراهیم هادیان
زکریا فرج زاده
دانشگاه شیراز
چکیده
اقتصاد و محیط‌زیست دو سیستم به هم وابسته هستند؛ در دهه­های اخیر محیط‌زیست جهانی، به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین کالای عمومی جهانی، به‌شدت تحت تأثیر اثرات خارجی منفی رشد اقتصادی از جمله تغییرات اقلیمی بوده است. در راستای درونی کردن این اثرات خارجی بهره­گیری از مالیات پیگویی یک روش توصیه شده است. یکی از مهمترین مدل­های طراحی شده برای بررسی یکپارچه اقتصاد و اقلیم مدل RICE نوردهاوس می­باشد؛ البته با این محدودیت که در این مدل رشد اقتصادی مورد بررسی به صورت برونزا لحاظ شده است. در این مطالعه هدف درون زا کردن رشد اقتصادی مدل RICE و تعیین نرخ مالیات در 6 سناریو شامل 1) سناریوی پایه 2) سناریوی اعمال نرخ بهینه کنترل انتشار 3) سناریو محدودیت دمای 2 درجه سانتی‌گراد 4) سناریو استرن تنزیل شده 5) سناریو استرن کالیبره شده و 6) سناریو کپنهاگ است. نتایج نشان می­دهد در مدل رشد درون‌زا نسبت مالیات به تولید خالص داخلی و انتشار CO2 در روند زمان باید افزایشی باشد. در همه سناریوهای مدل رشد درون زا ی ایران (به جز سناریوی پایه) افزایش مالیات در فاصله سال­های 2022 تا 2122 باعث کاهش انتشارCO2 صنعتی و کاهش غلظت کربن اتمسفر می­گردد. در نهایت با اعمال مالیات بهینه مشخص شده در همه سناریوها تغییرات دما کمتر از دو درجه سانتیگراد افزایش یافته است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
انتشار CO2
تغییرات اقلیمی
کالای عمومی
رشد درون زا

عنوان مقاله English

Determining the rate of carbon emission tax in terms of endogenous growth: a case study of Iran

نویسندگان English

Hayedeh Nourozi
Rouhollah Shahnazi
Ebrahim Hadian
Zakaria Farajzadeh
چکیده English

Economy and environment are two interdependent systems; In recent decades, the global environment, as the most important global public good, has been heavily influenced by the negative external effects of economic growth, including climate change. In order to internalize these external effects, the use of tracking tax is a recommended method. One of the most important models designed for the integrated study of economy and climate is the Nordhaus RICE model; Of course, with the limitation that in this economic growth model, it is included exogenously. In this study, the aim of endogenizing the economic growth of the RICE model and determining the tax rate in 6 scenarios including 1) the base scenario 2) the optimal emission control rate application scenario 3) the 2°C temperature limit scenario 4) the discounted Stern scenario 5) the calibrated Stern scenario and 6) Copenhagen scenario. The results show that in the endogenous growth model, the ratio of taxes to net domestic production and CO2 emissions should increase over time. In all scenarios of Iran's endogenous growth model (except the base scenario), tax increases between 2022 and 2122 will reduce industrial CO2 emissions and reduce atmospheric carbon concentration. Finally, by applying the specified optimal tax in all scenarios, temperature changes have increased by less than two degrees Celsius.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

CO2 emission
Climate Change
public good
endogenous growth model
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