اثرات حداقل دستمزد واقعی بر اشتغال در ایران

نویسنده
حسین نصراللهی
دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران
چکیده
اشتغال یکی از مهم‌ترین مسائلی است که هر کشوری با آن مواجه است. اشتغال نه تنها برای افراد، بلکه برای کل اقتصاد نیز نقشی حیاتی ایفا می‌کند، و درک عمیقی را در مورد شرایط بازار کار یک اقتصاد ارائه می‌دهد. در این راستا، حداقل دستمزد عامل مهمی است که بر بازار‌کار تأثیر می‌گذارد. ادبیات مربوط به حداقل دستمزد از دو مدل بازار کار استفاده می‌کند. مدل رقابتی استاندارد که پیش‌بینی می‌کند حداقل دستمزد اثرات منفی شغلی خواهد داشت. به بیان دیگر، در شرایط رقابت کامل، نظریه‌ی اقتصادی نشان می‌دهد که حداقل دستمزد بالاتر منجر به از دست دادن شغل می‌شود و مدل‌های غیررقابتی بازار کار که پیش‌بینی می‌کنند حداقل دستمزد اثرات مثبت شغلی خواهد داشت. با این حال، به‌طور‌کلی مشخص نیست که حداقل دستمزدها تأثیر مثبت یا منفی بر اشتغال دارد و یا بر اشتغال بی‌اثر است. از این‌رو، هدف این تحقیق، بررسی اثرات حداقل دستمزد واقعی بر اشتغال در ایران، در چارچوب یک مدل رگرسیون چندگانه و تخمین به روش ‌OLS طی دوره‌ی1400-1379 می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل رگرسیون نشان می‌دهد که افزایش حداقل دستمزد واقعی، تأثیر منفی معناداری بر اشتغال داشته، به طوری که با یک واحد افزایش حداقل دستمزد واقعی، اشتغال به میزان حدود 37/0 واحد کاهش می‌یابد. بنابراین، با در‌نظر‌گرفتن مراتب فوق پیشنهاد می‌گردد که افزایش حداقل دستمزد، حتی‌المقدور متناسب با بهره‌وری نیروی کار در اقتصاد صورت پذیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
اشتغال
‌ دستمزد‌
‌ رگرسیون

عنوان مقاله English

Effects of real minimum wage on employment in Iran

نویسنده English

hossein nasrollahi
چکیده English

Employment is one of the most important issues that any country faces. Employment plays a vital role not only for individuals but also for the economy as a whole, and provides a deep understanding of the labor market conditions of an economy. In this regard, the minimum wage is an important factor that affects the labor market. The literature on the minimum wage uses two labor market models. The standard competitive model, which predicts that the minimum wage will have negative employment effects. In other words, under conditions of perfect competition, economic theory suggests that a higher minimum wage will lead to job losses, and noncompetitive labor market models, which predict that the minimum wage will have positive employment effects. However, it is generally unclear whether minimum wages have a positive or negative effect on employment, or are ineffective. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the effects of the real minimum wage on employment in Iran, within the framework of a multiple regression model and OLS estimation during the period 1379-1400. The results of the regression analysis show that the increase in the real minimum wage has a significant negative effect on employment, so that with a one-unit increase in the real minimum wage, employment decreases by about 0.37 units. Therefore, taking the above into account, it is suggested that the increase in the minimum wage should be made as proportionate as possible to the Labor productivity in the economy

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Employment
wage
regression
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